Cédric CROFILS

• Institution: Université Paris Dauphine – PSL, Department of Economics 
• Research fields:  Macroeconomics, Environmental Economics 
• Job market paper: Weather Shocks, Agricultural prices and Inflationary pressures
• References: Gauthier Vermandel, Barbara Annicchiarico, Céline Poilly
• Curriculum Vitae: Resume_Crofils.pdf
• Link to candidate’s web: https://www.cedriccrofils.fr/
• Job market paper abstract:  

This paper examines the impact of weather variations on agricultural production and their effects on agricultural prices and inflation in a developing economy. Using a novel dataset combining quarterly agricultural outcomes and weather data from Peru, we assess how adverse weather events influence producer and consumer prices, focusing on the magnitude of the shocks. We further estimate the effects of these shocks on regional CPI inflation. To complement the empirical analysis, we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, highlighting the transmission channels of weather shocks.

The findings show that price responses are highly crop-specific, with larger shocks leading to greater price fluctuations. The effect on CPI inflation depends on the shock's severity: severe events generate inflationary pressures, while moderate shocks may cause short-term deflation. The model provides insights into these transmission mechanisms, showing that shifts in relative prices between goods and differences in price adjustments are the main drivers of these results.

 

 

 

Julien DUC

• Institution: Université Paris Dauphine – PSL, Department of Economics 
• Research fields:  Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics
• Job market paper: Access to credit, markups and the welfare cost of inflation
• References: Mariana Rojas Breu, Sylvain Carré, Richard Dutu
• Curriculum Vitae: Julien Duc - CV
• Link to candidate’s web: https://www.julienduc.net 
• Job market paper abstract:  

A growing body of literature studies the rise in markups and firm market power. Nevertheless, little attention has been paid to the effects of credit and liquidity distribution on markups. I examine the effects of access to credit on price dispersion in a frictional monetary economy with noisy consumer search à la Burdett and Judd (1983). Money is subject to the inflation tax, while access to credit is uncertain. Credit affects the equilibrium price distribution through money demand and firms' pricing decision. We calibrate the model to U.S. data and find that higher access to credit increases the average markup for moderate levels of access to credit. Overall, access to credit in a microfounded model of liquidity demand provides a rationale for the increase in markups.

 

Fatou FALL

• Institution: Université Paris Dauphine – PSL, Department of Economics 
• Research fields:  Development Economics, Agriculture, Applied microeconometrics
• Job market paper: Amidst Sahel’s Unrest : Malian refugees and rural households in Niger
• References: Tanguy Bernard, Philippe De Vreyer, Kenneth Houngbedji, Anne-Sophie Robillard, Camille Saint-Macary
• Curriculum Vitae: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1B1knxwdvNkvXh0PHo-a6zMEZ3-vT96nE/view
• Link to candidate’s web: https://www.fatoufallecon.com/
• Job market paper abstract:  Through instability and ongoing conflict, the countries of the Sahelian region have experienced conflict-induced migration, leading to the displacement of populations across borders. As host countries manage the challenges posed by the influx of refugees, it becomes crucial to study the hosting zones that are indirectly impacted by the conflict. Leveraging the events of the Malian crisis in 2012 as a natural experiment, we examine the impact on rural households in Niger, focusing on labor market and welfare outcomes. We investigate the impact of hosting refugees, relying on panel data of Nigerien households in 2012 and 2012 and UNHCR data about the number of refugees and camp localization. Our findings reveal that households more exposed to refugees are more likely to engage in secondary occupations and experience shifts in labor allocation. Moreover, food security improves for these households, as evidenced by higher food consumption scores during the harvest season. These findings emphasize the positive economic interactions between refugees and host communities, likely supported by organizations like the UNHCR, which contribute to the resilience and economic well-being of the host population. This research underscores the importance of institutions supporting the establishment of refugees, ensuring that their presence strengthens rather than strains local economies, and highlights their potential to contribute to the welfare and resilience of host communities.

 

 

Charles-Thierry LACAUSSADE

• Institution: Université Paris Dauphine – PSL, Department of Economics 
• Research fields:  Finance, Asset Pricing, Decision Theory
• Job market paper:  European option pricing with market frictions and elicitation of probability distortion functions  
• References: Aurélien Baillon, Marie Bessec, Fabio A. Maccheroni, Jean-Philippe Lefort
• Curriculum Vitae: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SkJfWkWi-T4q8MP6ffbROjwnlXpwCQbs/view?usp=sharing
• Link to candidate’s web: https://www.charleslacaussade.com/
• Job market paper abstract:  This paper presents the representation of an asset pricing model assuming the absence of arbitrage, the existence of market frictions, and the Put-Call Parity. This model constitutes a special case of the Choquet Pricing Rule, where the non-additive probability measure (or capacity) is decomposed into an additive probability and an increasing weighting function. The necessary conditions for a Choquet Pricing Rule to be a Rank-Dependent Pricing Rule are given in the finite and the infinite cases. We test the empirical validity of the Put-Call and Call-Put Parities assumptions on Bid and Ask call option prices from the S$\&$P500. The Rank-Dependent Pricing Rule is calibrated on the same data, utilizing two new families of distortion functions tailored for flexibility and two other functions referred to as (Generalized) Neo-Additive Capacity. We investigate the impact of time to expiration (time value) and moneyness (intrinsic value) on the shape of the distortion function. The resulting models (non-linear) always exhibit a greater accuracy than the benchmark (linear model).

Furthermore, the calibrated distortion functions display a remarkably similar shape. The results from the calibration procedure, through the inverted S-shape distortion function, allow us to conclude the risk-averse behavior of the market markers in evaluating call options prices. Finally, we verify the robustness of the calibration on another dataset.

 

 

Mathilde LESUEUR

 

• Institution: Université Paris Dauphine – PSL, Department of Economics 
• Research fields:  Development Economics, Gender, Applied Microeconomics, Policy Evaluation
• Job market paper: The Impact of Weather Shocks on the Effectiveness of Child Marriage Bans  
• References: Elise Huillery, Olivia Bertelli, Lucia Corno, Sandrine Mesplé-Somps
• Curriculum Vitae: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/8b4w1d5r1swzkdoex46yb/Lesueur_Mathilde_Resume.pdf?rlkey=efwimxz1ow2u5fh9dp5u95msg&st=nfg8qar4&dl=0
• Link to candidate’s web: https://mathildelesueur.weebly.com/
• Job market paper abstract: Child marriage continues to be a major issue in sub-Saharan Africa, where 31% of women aged 20-24 were married before 18. This practice is driven by economic pressures, especially in regions where marriage payments are common. For vulnerable households, child marriage serves as a coping mechanism in response to negative income shocks, as parents marry off their daughters earlier to expedite the receipt of marriage payments (the bride price). It suggests that financial constraints may hinder compliance with child marriage bans. Using Demographic and Health Survey, combined with rainfall and ethnographic data, I analyze the impact of negative income shocks, approximated by droughts, on the effectiveness of child marriage bans in 11 African countries. Using a difference-in-difference approach exploiting sub-national and cohort variation in exposure to the bans, I show that bans reduce child marriage likelihood in urban areas, with a 1 sd increase in ban intensity lowering child marriage likelihood by 3 p.p. (13%). In rural areas, bans do not reduce child marriage likelihood but increase the age at first union and birth. In regions practising the bride price, bans are effective in the absence of negative shock in both urban and rural areas. However, droughts during adolescence nullify the effectiveness of bans. 

 

Wenliang LI

• Institution: Université Paris Dauphine – PSL, Department of Economics 
• Research fields:  Macroeconomics, Development, Trade, Labour
• Job market paper: Comparative advantage, endowment structure and regional specialization in China  
• References: Gilles Saint-Paul, Lise Patureau, Jérôme Héricourt​, Xiaobing Wang
• Curriculum Vitae: https://docdro.id/7Q5hv8X
• Link to candidate’s web: https://sites.google.com/view/wenliangli
• Job market paper abstract: ​​This paper quantifies the roles of classical trade determinants in shaping the sectoral specialization patterns across Chinese provinces. It constructs a panel database covering factor inputs and production disaggregated across 32 sectors in 31 provinces from 1993 to 2016. Empirical measures of specialization and classical trade determinants are constructed based on a partial equilibrium model, explaining provincial specialization across multi-sectors by both Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin (HO) predictions. Empirical evidence indicates that provincial specialization is primarily driven by Ricardian TFP advantage rather than by HO endowment condition. Moreover, the Ricardian effect is stronger than the inertia effect in structural transition, implying that regional specialization in China is self-adjusting rather than path-dependent.

 

Jeanne de MONTALEMBERT

• Institution: Université Paris Dauphine – PSL, Department of Economics 
• Research fields: Environmental Economics, Development Economics 
• Job market paper: The Health Cost of Conservation: Impact of Protected Areas on Child Health 
• References: 
• Curriculum Vitae: https://jdemontalembert.github.io/assets/resume.pdf 
• Link to candidate’s web: https://jdemontalembert.github.io/ 
• Job market paper abstract: How does conservation policy shape child health? Using repeated cross-sectional household surveys from 2008 to 2021 and a newly database on Protected Areas (PAs) in Madagascar, I examine the impact of PAs on childhood anemia through a difference-in-differences estimation strategy. Results indicate that PAs reduce hemoglobin levels and increase anemia rates by 6 pp, with boys and children from poor households being more severely affected. This negative health impact is partly caused by a rise in malaria occurrence and a reduced intake of iron-rich foods, despite the improvements in access to drinking water and poverty reduction. These findings highlight the complex relationship between conservation efforts and health conditions in local communities. 

 

Inès MOURELON

 

• Institution: Université Paris Dauphine – PSL, Department of Economics and Aix-Marseille School of Economics 
• Research fields:  Macroeconomics, Climate Policy, Financial Frictions
• Job market paper: “Macroeconomic and Environmental Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty: A Sectoral Reallocation Perspective”  
• References: Lise Patureau, Garth Heutel, Céline Poilly
• Curriculum Vitae: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yvlcyM62otfzhafvBLQ1ZM9OlhGSEXfh/view
• Link to candidate’s web: https://sites.google.com/view/ines-mourelon/accueil?authuser=0
• Job market paper abstract:  This paper investigates sectoral reallocations in an economy where climate policy is uncertain. To this end, it develops a Dynamic General Equilibrium model with two sectors  - a polluting one and a non-polluting one, along with climate externality and endogenous firm entry. Climate policy uncertainty stems from the possibility that the government may introduce a carbon tax in the next period. I show that, compared to a scenario without climate policy uncertainty, the probability of implementing carbon taxation prompts entrepreneurs to curtail investment in polluting firms' entry while promoting entry into the non-polluting sector. Through general equilibrium effects, these sectoral reallocations deteriorate welfare, generate a drop in economic activity, and increase CO$_2$ emissions. I provide additional empirical evidence through a VAR model that supports these results. Overall, this paper points out the economic and environmental costs of climate policy uncertainty.

 

 

Côme POIRIER

 

• Institution: Université Paris Dauphine – PSL, Department of Economics 
• Research fields:  Macroeconomics, Production networks, Business fluctuations
• Job market paper:  Industrial policy in endogenous production networks
• References: Gauthier Vermandel, Adrien Auclert, Xavier Ragot
• Curriculum Vitae:https://drive.google.com/file/d/11PRZaxyRrSH7J3aSnxCNdDNl9Y31KSQX/view
• Link to candidate’s web: https://www.comepoirier.fr/accueil
• Job market paper abstract:  This paper analyzes the effects of industrial policy when input-output linkages are formed endogenously. Market imperfections increase the prices of inputs used for production, weakening the linkages between sectors and impairing the corresponding productivity of the network through chain reactions. In response to these externalities, targeted industrial policies can promote sectors to expand the network and enhance overall productivity. Building a tractable model of production networks where the sectors’ supplier choices are endogenous, we provide a theoretical decomposition of the effect of industrial policies on welfare and we derive the optimal industrial policies in environments with and without market imperfections. Using a global solver algorithm, we compute the optimal industrial policy for a calibrated version of the US economy and we show that the optimal policy could increase real GDP up to 5% due to network expansion. We also show that aggregate policies are enough to generate welfare improvements of the same order of magnitude as idiosyncratic policies.

 

 

 

 

 

Éléonore ROUAULT

 

• Institution: Université Paris Dauphine – PSL, Department of Economics 
• Research fields:  Development, Health, Environmental Economics
• Job market paper: Early-life weather shocks and long-term cognition in China
• References: Clémentine Garrouste, Flore Gubert, Philipe Quirion
• Curriculum Vitae: https://eleonorerouault.github.io/cv/
• Link to candidate’s web: https://eleonorerouault.github.io/
• Job market paper abstract:  This study investigates how early-life exposure to weather shocks affects cognitive function and its decline after age 50 in rural China. While extensive literature documents the immediate effects of environmental shocks on early-life health and human capital, I examine a longer exposure period (from in utero to age 15) and its impacts on longer-term cognition outcomes. Exploiting both cross-sectional and panel dimensions of survey data, I find that early childhood (prenatal to age 4) is particularly critical. A one-standard-deviation increase in weather shocks during this period reduces cognitive scores by 0.05 standard deviations after age 50—equivalent to the cognitive decline typically observed over 1.5 years of aging. Moreover, prenatal weather shocks accelerate cognitive decline, observable after age 65. The effects appear to be driven by both the sensitive prenatal period and reduced human capital investment following these shocks.