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Fouré J., Guimbard H., Monjon S. (2016), Border Carbon Ajustment in Europe and Trade Retaliation: What would be the Cost for European Union?, Energy economics, 54, p. 349â362
Unilateral climate policy, such as carbon pricing, represents an additional cost to the economy, especially to energy-intensive industrial sectors, as well as those exposed to international competition. A border carbon adjustment (BCA) is often presented as an attractive policy option for countries that wish to go ahead without waiting for a global climate agreement. We used the computable general equilibrium model MIRAGE to simulate the impact of the introduction of a BCA on imports of energy-intensive products in EU and EFTA countries and to evaluate the exports their main trade partners would lose. Given that a BCA is a trade measure, it might cause disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO). If the BCA is considered illegal, the losses suffered by some partners may justify trade retaliations. At that point, it would be likely that prohibitive retaliatory tariffs target sensitive products in the EU, which are often related to the European agricultural sector. These trade measures would limit the drop in production in the energy-intensive and trade-exposed (EITE) sectors, but at the expense of the other sectors. Nevertheless, neither the BCA nor retaliation would have sizeable impacts on real income or GDP in the EU or on the retaliators, while leading to a small decrease in global emissions.
Guivarch C., Monjon S., Rozenberg J., Vogt-Schilb A. (2015), Would climate policy improve European energy security?, Climate Change Economics, 6, 2, p. 35
Energy security improvement is often presented as a co-benefit of climate policies. This paper evaluates this claim. It investigates whether climate policy would improve energy security, while accounting for the difficulties entailed by the many-faceted nature of the concept and the large uncertainties on the determinants of future energy systems. A multi-dimension analysis grid is used to capture the energy security concept, and a database of scenarios allows us to explore the uncertainty space. The results, focusing on Europe, reveal there is no unequivocal effect of climate policy on all the perspectives of energy security. Moreover, time significantly matters: the impact of climate policies is mixed in the short term and globally good in the medium term.In the long term, there is a risk of degradation of the energy security. Lastly, we examine the robustness of our results to uncertainties on drivers of economic growth, availability of fossil fuels and the potentials and low-carbon technologies, and find that they are sensitive mainly tofossil fuels availability, low carbon technologies in the energy sector and improvements in energy efficiency.
Capelle-Blancard G., Monjon S. (2014), The Performance of Socially Responsible Funds : Does the Screening Process Matter ?, European Financial Management, 20, 3, p. 494-520
In this study, we examine whether the financial performances of socially responsible investment (SRI) mutual funds are related to the features of the screening process. Based on a sample of French SRI funds, we find evidence that a greater screening intensity slightly reduces financial performance (but the relationship runs in the opposite direction when screening gets tougher). Further, we show that only sectoral screens - such as avoiding 'sin' stocks - decrease financial performance, while transversal screens - commitment to UN Global Compact Principles, ILO/Rights at Work, etc. - have no impact. Lastly, when the quality of the SRI selection process is proxied by the rating provided by Novethic, its impact is not significant, while a higher strategy distinctiveness amongst SRI funds, which also gives information on the quality of the selection process, is associated with better financial performance.
Capelle-Blancard G., Monjon S. (2012), Trends in the literature on socially responsible investment: looking for the keys under the lamppost, Business Ethics, 21, 3, p. 239-250
In this paper, we use online search engines and archive collections to examine the popularity of socially responsible investing (SRI) in newspapers and academic journals. A simple content analysis suggests that most of the papers on SRI focus on financial performance. This profusion of research is somewhat puzzling as most of the studies used roughly the same methodology and obtained very similar results. So, why are there so many studies on SRI financial performance? We argue that the academic literature on SRI is mostly data driven: the famous 'looking for the keys under the lamppost' syndrome. The question of the financial performance of the SRI funds is certainly relevant but maybe too much attention has been paid to this issue, whereas more research is needed on a conceptual and theoretical ground, in particular the aspirations of SRI investors, the relationship between regulation and SRI as well as the assessment of extra-financial performances.
Monjon S. (2012), Limiting greenhouse gas emissions: is the Cancun agreement enough?, Atoms For Peace, 3, 3, p. 197-205
The objective set by the IPPC of limiting the increase in average global temperature to +2°C compared with the pre-industrial era is now accepted by all concerned. This ambitious objective was recognised at the Copenhagen Conference in 2009 and confirmed at Cancun in 2010. There are still no restrictive measures, but to achieve this objective, the main countries contributing to the emissions have already announced their commitment to reducing their emissions by 2020. The aim of this paper is firstly to gain a better understanding of what this objective involves in terms of reducing global emissions over the next ten years. It will then go on to assess whether the measures taken by the various countries are sufficient.
Monjon S., Geoffron P. (2012), Les scénarios énergétiques pour la France en 2050, Les Cahiers Français, 366, p. 61-65
Monjon S., Quirion P. (2011), Addressing leakage in the EU ETS : Border adjustment or output-based allocation ?, Ecological Economics, 70, 11, p. 1957-1971
The EU ETS has been criticised for threatening the competitiveness of European industry and generating carbon leakage, i.e., increasing foreign greenhouse gas emissions. Two main options have been put forward to tackle these concerns : border adjustments and output-based allocation, i.e., allocation of free allowances in proportion to current production. We compare various configurations of these two options, as well as a scenario with full auctioning and no border adjustment. Against this background, we develop a model of the main sectors covered by the EU ETS: electricity, steel, cement, and aluminium. We conclude that the most efficient way to tackle leakage is auctioning with border adjustment, which generally induces a negative leakage (a spillover). This holds even if the border adjustment does not include indirect emissions, if it is based on EU (rather than foreign) specific emissions, or (for some values of the parameters) if it covers only imports. Another relatively efficient policy is to combine auctioning in the electricity sector and output-based allocation in exposed industries, especially if free allowances are given both for direct and indirect emissions, i.e., those generated by the generation of the electricity consumed. Although output-based allocation is generally less effective than border adjustment to tackle leakage, it is more effective to mitigate production losses in the sectors affected by the ETS, which may ease climate policy adoption.
Quirion P., Monjon S. (2011), A border adjustment for the EU ETS: Reconciling WTO rules and capacity to tackle carbon leakage, Climate Policy, 11, 5, p. 1212-1225
Cet article compare plusieurs configurations d'ajustements aux frontières (AF) appliquées au système communautaire d'échange de quotas d'émissions (SCEQE) conçus pour maximiser leur compatibilité avec les règles de l'OMC, que ce soit en fonction du régime général du GATT ou de son article XX (exceptions pour motifs environnementaux). Les différents AF sont évalués quantitativement avec le modèle d'équilibre partiel CASE II, qui représente quatre secteurs inclus dans le SCEQE (ciment, aluminium, acier et électricité). Les principaux résultats indiquent que l'inclusion des importations et des exportations conduirait à une plus grande réduction des émissions mondiales que l'inclusion des importations seules, qu'une obligation d'acheter des quotas européens est plus compatible avec les règles de l'OMC qu'une taxe et qu'elle serait plus favorable à la réduction des émissions mondiales. Par ailleurs, si l'AF est basé sur les meilleures technologies disponibles, plus précisément les benchmarks européens récemment définis, alors les fuites de carbone seraient considérablement réduites, bien que l'ajustement ne soit alors que partiel. Nous discutons l'opinion populaire selon laquelle les AF contribuent à la fois à la limitation des fuites de carbone et à la protection de la production domestique et concluons au contraire que les AF seraient efficaces pour limiter les fuites, mais qu'une baisse de la production européenne de produits intensifs en gaz à effet de serre est à prévoir. Les industries qui consomment du ciment, de l'aluminium et de l'acier paieraient plus pour ces matériaux avec un ajustement aux frontières. Par conséquent, le signal prix serait conservé et diffusé dans les secteurs en aval, un résultat clé attendu de la politique climatique. Au contraire, l'allocation gratuite permet une protection efficace de la production domestique mais ne préserve ni ne diffuse le signal prix et est moins efficace en ce qui concerne la limitation des fuites de carbone.
This article compares several configurations of a border adjustment (BA) to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) that are designed to maximize their World Trade Organisation (WTO) compatibility, either with the GATT general regime or with Article XX (its environmental exception rule). The different BAs are assessed quantitatively using the partial equilibrium model CASE II, which represents four sectors included in the EU ETS (cement, aluminium, steel and electricity). The main findings indicate that the inclusion of imports and exports would reduce world emissions more than the inclusion of imports alone, that an obligation to buy EU allowances is more compatible with WTO rules than one based on a tax, and would be better at reducing world emissions. Moreover, if the BA is based on best available technologies, more precisely on the recently defined EU product-specific benchmarks, then the adjustment would only be partial and carbon leakage would nevertheless be significantly reduced. The popular view that a BA contributes to both carbon leakage limitation and to domestic production preservation is discussed, and it is argued on the contrary that although a BA would efficiently limit leakage, a decrease in European production of GHG-intensive products is to be expected. Industries that consume cement, aluminium and steel would pay more for these goods with a BA. Consequently, the price signal should be preserved and diffused in downstream sectors, an expected key result of climate policy. On the contrary, free allocation efficiently preserves domestic production, but does not preserve and diffuse the price signal and is less efficient in limiting leakage.
Monjon S., Tavoni M., Steckel J., Luderer G., Jakob M. (2011), Time to act now ? Assessing the costs of delaying climate measures and benefits of early action, Climatic Change, p. 21
This paper compares the results of the three state of the art climate-energy-economy models IMACLIM-R, ReMIND-R, and WITCH to assess the costs of climate change mitigation in scenarios in which the implementation of a global climate agreement is delayed or major emitters decide to participate in the agreement at a later stage only. We find that for stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO2-only, postponing a global agreement to 2020 raises global mitigation costs by at least about half and a delay to 2030 renders ambitious climate targets infeasible to achieve. In the standard policy scenario--in which allocation of emission permits is aimed at equal per-capita levels in the year 2050--regions with above average emissions (such as the EU and the US alongside the rest of Annex-I countries) incur lower mitigation costs by taking early action, even if mitigation efforts in the rest of the world experience a delay. However, regions with low per-capita emissions which are net exporters of emission permits (such as India) can possibly benefit from higher future carbon prices resulting from a delay. We illustrate the economic mechanism behind these observations and analyze how (1) lock-in of carbon intensive infrastructure, (2) differences in global carbon prices, and (3) changes in reduction commitments resulting from delayed action influence mitigation costs.
Monjon S. (2011), Pourra-t-on limiter la hausse de la température à +2°C ?, Recherches internationales, 89, p. 113-130
Monjon S., Quirion P. (2010), How to design a border adjustment for the European Union Emissions Trading System ?, Energy Policy, 38, 9, p. 5199-5207
Border adjustments are currently discussed to limit the possible adverse impact of climate policies on competitiveness and carbon leakage. We discuss the main choices that will have to be made if the European Union implements such a system alongside the EU ETS. Although more analysis is required on some issues, on others some design options seem clearly preferable to others. First, the import adjustment should be a requirement to surrender allowances rather than a tax. Second, the general rule to determine the amount of allowances per ton imported should be the product-specific benchmarks that the European Commission is currently elaborating for a different purpose (i.e. to determine the amount of free allowances). Third, this obligation should apply when the imported product is registered at the EU border, and not after the end of the year as is the case for domestic emitters. Fourth, the export adjustment should take the form of a rebate on the amount of allowances a domestic emitter has to surrender. Five, this rebate should equal the above-mentioned product-specific benchmarks, not the emissions of the particular exporting plant or firm. Finally, the adjustment does not have to apply to consumer products but mostly to basic products.
Monjon S. (2010), Réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre : pourquoi ? combien ? comment ?, Les Cahiers Français, 355, p. 61-66
L'objectif préconisé par le GIEC de limiter l'augmentation de la température moyenne mondiale à +2°C par rapport à l'ère préindustrielle est désormais accepté par tous. Cet objectif ambitieux, reconnu à la conférence de Copenhague en 2009, a été confirmé à Cancún en 2010. Il n'y a encore aucune mesure contraignante, mais pour atteindre cet objectif, les principaux pays émetteurs ont d'ores et déjà annoncé des engagements de réductions de leurs émissions pour 2020. L'objet de cet article est d'abord de mieux comprendre ce qu'implique cet objectif en termes de réduction des émissions mondiales à un horizon de 10 ans. Il s'agira ensuite d'apprécier si les mesures prises par les États sont suffisantes.
The objective set by the IPPC of limiting the increase in average global temperature to +2°C compared to the pre-industrial era is now accepted by all concerned. This ambitious objective was recognised at the Copenhagen Conference in 2009 and confirmed at Cancun in 2010. There are still no restrictive measures, but to achieve this objective, the main countries contributing to the emissions have already announced their commitment to reducing their emissions by 2020. The aim of this paper is firstly to gain a better understanding of what this objective involves in terms of reducing global emissions over the next ten years. It will be then go on to assess whether the measures taken by the various countries are sufficient.
Monjon S., Waelbroeck P. (2003), Assessing spillovers from universities to firms: evidence from French firm-level data, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 21, 9, p. 1255â1270
We assess the importance of information flows from universities to innovative firms and determine the relative contribution of formal collaboration and pure knowledge spillovers in this process. We find that spillovers provide the most benefit to firms that imitate existing technologies or those that are involved in incremental innovation. On the other hand, highly innovative firms appear to derive most benefit from collaborative research with foreign universities. Indeed, highly innovative firms are at the frontier of the academic knowledge in their industry. Therefore, they only marginally benefit from aggregate (or industry-wide) spillovers. They require new forms of academic knowledge that they acquire through formal cooperation with foreign universities.
Meunier G., Monjon S., Ponssard J-P. (2011), Compétitivité et fuites de carbone dans le cadre de politiques climatiques unilatérales, in Ponssard J-P. (dir.), Économie du climat : pistes pour l'après-Kyoto, p. 308
Capelle Blancard G., Monjon S. (2010), Socially Responsable Investing: Myths and Realities, in Lautier Delphine . (eds), The Economics of Sustainable Development, London, London School of Economics and Political Science, p. 368
Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) enjoys a large consensus and is often presented as being able to conciliate finance and sustainable development. Actually, the SRI market share stays low (slightly more than 10%), not to say very low if we consider only "Core SRI" (very few percent). Its growth is relatively high in Europe, but its market share is stagnating in the US. Accordingly, for now, SRI does not have a significant impact on firms' cost of capital. Additionally, a careful review of the academic literature shows clearly that the financial performances of SRI funds are neither better -nor worse- than those of traditional mutual funds.Doing well by doing good: the intention is undoubtedly admirable. However, it could lead to wishful thinking and blindness to unintended consequences. In this article, we shall warn against two pitfalls: first, attempting to overly inflate the SRI market may lead to a weakening of the concept and to the development of greenwashing; second, claiming that SRI outperforms opens the door to lobbies that will certainly use the argument to defend self-regulation. SRI must not be used as a substitute for regulation.
Guivarch C., Monjon S., Rozenberg J., Vogt-Schilb A. (2014), Would climate policy improve the European energy security?, Fifth World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, Istanbul, TURKEY
Energy security improvement is often presented as apossible co-benefit of climate policies.This paper evaluates this claim. It presents a methodology to investigate whether climate policy would improve energy security, while accounting for the difficulties entailed by themany-faceted nature of the energy security conceptand the large uncertainties on the determinants of future changes in energy systems. To do so, it uses a set of indicators in a four-dimension analysis grid of the energy securityconcept, and a database of scenarios exploring the uncertainty space. The results, focusing on Europe, reveal there is no unequivocal effect of climate policy on all the dimensions of energy security and that some trade-offs are involved. The many-faceted nature ofenergy security matters: energy security has several dimensions, some of which can be heightened by climate policy. Time matters:the effect of climate policy on energy security depends on the time horizon considered. Last, these results are robust to key uncertainties on the future potential and costs of technologies,on future improvements in energy efficiency, on fossil fuel resources and markets and on drivers of economic growth. However, some of these uncertainties determine the magnitude of the effect of climate policy on energy security indicators.
Quirion P., Monjon S. (2011), A border adjustment for the EU ETS: Reconciling WTO rules and capacity to tackle carbon leakage, 60ème congrés de l'AFSE, Nanterre, France
Monjon S., Quirion P. (2011), Which design of a border adjustment for the EU ETS? A quantitative assessment , 60e Congrès de l'AFSE, Nanterre, France
We compare several options for a border adjustment to the European Union Emission Trading System. We discuss their WTO-compatibility and provide a quantitative assessment based on the partial equilibrium model CASE II. We conclude that, firstly, if the EU wants to implement such a border adjustment, it should cover imports and exports rather than only imports, in order to maximise the impact on world emissions. Secondly, the import part should consist in an obligation to buy EU ETS allowances rather than a tax, in order to maximise both the WTO-compatibility and the impact on world emissions. Thirdly, both the import and the export adjustment should be based on the recently defined EU product-specific benchmarks. However, while border adjustments tackle leakage efficiently, they are much less efficient than free allocation to mitigate the decrease in EU production in GHG-intensive sectors. Moreover they exacerbate the price increase of GHG-intensive products, which is detrimental to downstream industries.
Gourdon J., Monjon S., Poncet S. (2015), Trade policy and industrial policy in China: What motivates public authorities to apply restrictions on exports?, Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales, Paris, 29
This work investigates the motivations behind the Chinese fiscal policy on exports. It relies on very detailed product level (HS 6 digit) data over the period 2002-12 covering both export tax and export VAT rebate. It aims to uncover the respective importance of the various policy motivations and how they evolved over time. Our empirical analysis relates the tax rates to proxies of official objectives pursued by the Chinese public authorities such as those related to the promotion of technology or protection of the environment but also other unstated motives pertaining to subsidization of downstream sectors and terms of trade. Our results suggest that the Chinese fiscal policy targeting exports followsa variety of objectives whose relative importance changed over the period 2002-2012.
Gourdon J., Monjon S., Poncet S. (2014), Incomplete VAT rebates to exporters : how do they affect China's export performance?, CEPII working paper, Paris, 40
During the last decade, the Chinese government has frequently changed the value added tax (VAT) refund levels offered to exporters. Indeed, China's VAT system is not neutral, in particular because the exporters may not receive complete refund of the domestic VAT paid on their inputs. This paper investigates how changes in the VAT rebates affect export performance in China. Our empirical analysis relies on export volume data at the HS6 product level over the 2003-12 period. To address potential endogeneity, we exploit an eligibility rule that disqualifies processingtrade with supplied materials from the rebates. We find that the adjustments to the VAT rebates have significant repercussions on the exported volume: a one percentage point increase in the VAT rebate can lead to a 7% increase in export volumes. This magnitude allows to better understand the strong resistance of China's exports amid the global recession.
Hering L., Gourdon J., Monjon S., Poncet S. (2014), Export management and incomplete VAT rebates to exporters: the case of China, Development Policies working papers, Clermont-Ferrand, FERDI - Fondation pour les études et recherches sur le développement international, 45
Compared to most countries, China's value-added tax (VAT) system is not neutral and makes it less advantageous to export a product than to sell it domestically, as exporters may not receive a complete refund on the domestic VAT they have paid on their inputs. However, the large and frequent changes to the VAT refunds which are offered to exporters have been led China to be accused of providing its firms with an unfair advantage in global trade. We use city-specific export-quantity data at the HS6-productlevel over the 2003-12 period to assess how changes in these VAT rebates have affected Chinese export performance. Our identification strategy relies on triple difference estimates that exploit an eligibility rule which disqualifies processing trade with supplied materials from these rebates. We find that changes in VAT rebates have significant export repercussions: eligible export quantity for a given city-HS6 pair rises by 6.5% following a one percentage-point increase in the VAT rebate. This magnitude yields abetter understanding of the strong resistance of Chinese exports during the global recession, in which export rebates increased substantially.