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Bates S., Angeon V. (2015), Reviewing Composite Vulnerability and Resilience Indexes: A Sustainable Approach and Application, World Development, 72, p. 140â162
Vulnerability-resilience indexes fail to grasp all dimensions of sustainability, whereas sustainable development has gained momentum. We fill this gap with a hierarchical multimetric composite index (Net Vulnerability Resilience Index: NVRI) whose robustness relies on a mathematical algorithm based on graph theory. A worldwide application shows that (i) both vulnerability and resilience are policy-responsive and that (ii) there is no determinism for a country to remain vulnerable or resilient. The NVRI enables us to identify a country's strengths and weaknesses and determine the policy orientations that should be implemented to achieve sustainability.
Bates S., Ndiaye C. (2014), Economic Growth from a Structural Unobserved Component Modeling: The Case of Senegal, Economics Bulletin, 34, 2, p. 951-965
Using the structural unobserved component (UC) modeling, this study analyzes the Senegalese economic growth path after 5 decades of independence by focusing on the potential output, the GDP cycle and the type of shocks on the GDP. Empirical evidence suggests that an inventory cycle mainly drives the GDP short-term component with a time-varying extent of fluctuations. The main sources of shocks result from external determining factors with an impact on the long run. However, their persistent effects have been mitigated particularly since the devaluation of 1994. International institutions have partially motivated the relative successful GDP growth path of Senegal. Nevertheless, some structural internal improvements are needed to balance the financial and productive flaws in order to consolidate both the "resilience" to shocks and the macroeconomic stabilization.
Bates S., Angeon V., Ainouche A. (2014), The pentagon of vulnerability and resilience: A methodological proposal in development economics by using graph theory, Economic Modelling, 42, p. 445â453
Several assessments of vulnerability and resilience have been attempted at a country level through composite indices but they are barely in accord with a holistic view of sustainable development. We suggest graph theory to structure a network of variables that depict vulnerability and resilience from a sustainable development perspective. Vulnerability is defined as the propensity to incur adverse shocks whereas resilience is the capacity to cope with their negative effects. We identify two control dimensions of vulnerability-resilience (economic and political) and three contingency factors (the social, environmental and the peripheral dimensions). The specificity of the control dimensions is rooted in their impact on all other sides of the pentagon. We propose an algorithm to select the key variables useful in building a composite index that conforms to the structure of these five dimensions while preventing loss of information. An application is provided on Singapore, which has been specified as a typical case of resilience.
Bates S., Vaugirard V. (2009), Monetary Transmission Channels around the Subprime Crisis : The US Experience, Global Economy and Finance Journal, p. 17
Hachicha A., Bates S. (2009), Empirical Analysis of Monetary Transmission in Tunisia: What do SVAR Models Tell Us?, The Open Economics Journal, 2, p. 1-9
Monetary policy contributes to stabilize growth. Particularly in a reforming context for financial and economic activities, it is important to know how central bankers' decisions through the short term interest rate of the money market are transmitted to the real variables: the GDP and the inflation. Few studies on monetary transmission mechanisms deal with the Maghreb countries. Structural VAR are used to investigate the importance of various monetary transmission channels at a macro scale from convenient impulse response functions. As a result, the Tunisian central bank should mainly target inflation, focussing the interest rate channel and the long-term interest rate as the principal transmission variable.
Bates S., Dokoui S., Pognon O. (2007), Assessing tourism macroeconomic net profitability : Costs-benefits analysis of international tourism returns, Revue d'Economie Régionale et Urbaine, 1, p. 79-96
Les études existantes sur l'impact économique des recettes touristiques proposent rarement une comparaison entre leurs effets d'entraînement potentiels et les coûts nécessaires à leur accumulation. Le but de ce papier est de proposer un indicateur de rentabilité macroéconomique du tourisme susceptible de déterminer dans quelle mesure le secteur touristique peut présenter un avantage net pour le développement économique. Une application sur les économies de la Caraïbe rend compte de l'opportunité de cet indicateur en termes de stratégie politique.
Studies of the economic impact of tourism returns rarely offer a comparison between their potential driving effects and the costs of their accumulation. The aim of this paper is to devise a tourism macroeconomic profitability indicator capable of determining how the tourism sector can present a net advantage for economic development. The Caribbean case sets an example of the advantages of this indicator in terms of political strategy.
Marais E., Bates S. (2006), An empirical study to identify shift contagion during the Asian crisis, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 16, 5, p. 468â479
The paper is an empirical study on contagion during the 1997-1998 Asian crisis. In line with Sander and Kleimeier [Sander, H., Kleimeier, S., 2003. Contagion and causality: an empirical investigation of four Asian crisis episodes. International Financial Markets, Institution and Money 13, 171-186], Granger causality among Asian economies on sovereign debt market is tested. Using a new measure of causality, we attempt to show the existence of shift contagion defined as significant differences in cross-markets links between tranquil and crisis periods. Firstly, non-existent links during the tranquil period play a key role during the crisis. Secondly, causality directions give evidence of the major influence of the South Korean crisis which seems to prevail on investors to reassess the whole region.
Bates S. (2005), Global measure of causal intensity between real and financial spheres, Applied Economics, 37, p. 1635-1642
The lack of theoretical consensus on the causality direction between real and financial spheres as well as on the macroeconomic importance of transmission channels drive to an empirical approach of the links between the two areas. The aim of this paper is to offer a method for the analysis of the causal structure between the two spheres according to the transmission channels. It becomes possible globally on short and long runs for a given country to better surround mechanisms intervening inside the feedback between real and financial areas.
Angeon V., Bates S. (2010), How to measure vulnerability and resilience ? Lessons learnt from the pioneer studies on small islands developing states (SIDS), Documents de travail du CEREGMIA, Schoelcher (Martinique), Centre d'Etude et de Recherche en Economie, Gestion, Modélisation et Informatique Appliquée (Université des Antilles et de la Guyane), 9
Small islands developing states constitute a fruitful topic to work on concerning the question of vulnerability and resilience. As debated in the economic literature, these territories present structural characteristics - smallness, remoteness and insularity - that are considered as strong handicaps, which impede their development. Several empirical tests have been implemented to measure the vulnerability of SIDS. The results reveal the importance of the phenomenon but are resolutely based on different computation methods and do not systematically cope with sustainable considerations. Therefore, there are as many methodologies as empirical studies, a fact that can seriously be prejudicial not only to the robustness of the results, but also to the validity of the used methodologies which appear contingent to the specific studied resilience. It is based on the graph theory and the Nepomiastchy-Ravelli algorithm in order identify a minimum set of variables respecting five dimensions that should necessarily be taken into account: economic, social, environment, governance, insularity. A complete and new composite index of vulnerability and resilience is suggested in accordance with the following generic principles: accuracy, simplicity, ease of interpretation, computation robustness, comparability, universality and flexibility.