Curriculum vitae

Chauvet Lisa

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lisa.chauvetping@dauphinepong.fr

Publications

Articles

Chauvet L., Gubert F., Mercier M., Mesplé-Somps S. (2015), Migrants' Home Town Associations and Local Development in Mali, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 117, 2, p. 686-722

Nous analysons l'impact des associations de migrants (AM) de Maliens vivant en France sur la disponibilité en biens publics au Mali. Pour ce faire, nous avons constitué une base originale dedonnées qui recense l'ensemble des AM maliennes enregistrées au Journal Officiel français depuis1981 et qui géo-référence leurs lieux d'intervention. Cette base est couplée avec quatre recensementsexhaustifs qui permettent de connaître la disponibilité en biens publics de chaque village malien de 1976 à 2009. En mettant en oeuvre une estimation en double différences, nous montrons que les AM maliennes ont significativement contribué à l'augmentation du nombre d'écoles, de centres de santé et d'adduction d'eau sur la période 1987-2009. Plus précisément, on observe que la différence entre le groupe de villages traités et le groupe de contrôle concernant l'adduction en eau est dû à des investissements menés durant la seconde période (1998-2009) tandis que les financements des AMconcernant les écoles et les centres de santé ont eu lieu tout au long de la période 1987-2009.

This paper explores the impact of Malian migrants' Home Town Associations (HTAs) located in France on the provision of local public goods in Mali. To this end, we compute an original dataset on all the HTAs that have been created by Malian migrants in France since 1981 and geo-localize their interventions on the Malian territory. Thanks to four waves of Malian census, we also build a panel dataset on the provision of a range of public goods in all Malian villages over the 1976-2009 period.These two sources of data allow us to implement a difference-in-differences strategy, and to comparevillages with and without an HTA, before and after HTAs developed their activity in Mali. We find that Malian HTAs have significantly contributed to improve the provision of schools, health centersand water amenities over the 1987-2009 period. When looking at the timing of the treatment, we observe that the difference between treated and control villages in terms of water amenities is mainlydriven by the second period of observation (1998-2009), while schools and health centers exhibit significant differences during the whole period.

Chauvet L., Mercier M. (2014), Do return migrants transfer political norms to their origin country? Evidence from Mali, Journal of Comparative Economics, 42, 3, p. 630-651

This paper explores the link between return migration and political outcomes in the origin country, using the case study of Mali. We use electoral and census data at the locality level to investigate the role of return migration on participation rates and electoral competitiveness. First, we run OLS and IV estimations for the 2009 municipal election, controlling for current emigration and using historical and distance variables as instruments for return migration and current emigration. Second, we build a panel dataset combining the 1998 and 2009 censuses and the electoral results for the municipal ballots of those two years to control for the potential time-invariant unobservable characteristics of the localities. We find a positive impact of the stock of return migrants on participation rates and on electoral competitiveness, which mainly stems from returnees from non-African countries. Finally, we show that the impact of returnees on turnout goes beyond their own participation, and that they affect more electoral outcomes in areas where non-migrants are poorly educated, which we interpret as evidence of a diffusion of political norms from returnees to non-migrants.

Bernard C., Chauvet L., Gubert F., Mercier M., Mesplé-Somps S. (2014), Malian Migrants' Home Town Associations: Insights from Two Original Surveys, Revue Européenne des Migrations Internationales, 30, 3 et 4, p. 109-137

Cet article présente deux dispositifs originaux decollecte de données sur les associations de migrants maliens présentes en France et dans le reste du monde : le premier s'est attaché àrecenser les associations de migrants maliens déclarées en France et à identifier leurs terrains d'intervention au Mali. Le second s'est greffé à une enquête nationale représentative réalisée en 2011 au Mali, et a consisté en l'ajout d'un module recensant l'ensemble des associations de ressortissants intervenant dans les communes et villages enquêtés. Ces deux dispositifs complémentaires confirment la propension élevée des Maliens de la région de Kayes à migrer et à se regrouper en association.Ils montrent également que ce fort engagement associatif n'est pas exclusif aux migrants originaires de la région de Kayes et résidant en France : les Maliens de France originaires d'autres régions, notamment Koulikoroet Mopti, sont eux aussi à l'origine de la création de nombreuses associations, tout comme les Maliens résidant dans d'autres pays.

This article presents two original datasets on Malian Migrants' Home TownAssociations (HTAs) located in France and in the rest of the world. The first is a census of the HTAs declared in the French Journal Officiel that provides detailed information on their area of intervention in Mali. The second is a representative survey implemented in Mali in 2011 that collected exhaustive information on abroad-based HTAs intervening in each commune and village of the sample. These two complementary datasets confirm that Malians coming from the region of Kayes are strongly prone to gather in HTAs, notably in France. They also show that this propensity to create HTAs is not exclusive to these migrants. A lot of HTAs were created by Malians coming from the regions of Koulikoro and Mopti, in France as well as in other destination countries.

Chauvet L., Gubert F., Mesplé-Somps S. (2013), Aid, Remittances, Medical Brain Drain and Child Mortality: Evidence Using Inter and Intra-Country Data., The Journal of Development Studies, 49, 6, p. 801-818

This article analyses the respective impact of aid, remittances and medical brain drain (MBD) on child mortality using panel and cross-country quintile-level data on respectively 84 and 46 developing countries. Our results show that remittances reduce child mortality while MBD increases it. Health aid also significantly reduces child mortality but its impact is less robust than the impact of remittances. Remittances seem to be more effective in reducing mortality for children belonging to households from the upper classes, whereas neither a pro-poor nor anti-poor effect is found for health aid.

, The "Battles" of Paris and New York, an Analysis of the Transnational Electoral Behaviour of Senegalese Immigrants in France and the United States, Revue française de Science politique, 63, 5, p. 865-892

La plupart des États ont, ces dernières années, octroyé la double nationalité et la double citoyenneté à leurs ressortissants établis à l'étranger. Cet article mobilise les données issues d'une enquête multisituée originale réalisée en France et aux États-Unis lors du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle sénégalaise de 2012 pour analyser le comportement électoral des migrants sénégalais et les transferts sociaux entre pays d'accueil et d'origine. Nos résultats mettent en évidence la forte participation électorale des migrants, tant pour les élections de leur pays d'origine que pour celles de leur pays d'accueil pour ceux ayant la double nationalité, et l'importance des transferts sociaux entre les deux espaces qui se traduisent notamment par des consignes de vote dont l'influence s'exerce de manière prépondérante en direction du pays d'origine.

Dual nationality and citizenship, and external voting rights have been granted by a majority of countries for the last years. This article uses original data collected through a multi-sited survey among Senegalese migrants living in France and in the United States during the first round of Senegal's 2012 presidential election to analyse the electoral behaviour of Senegalese migrants and social remittances between destination and origin countries. Senegalese migrants are found to be strongly associated with high level of electoral participation not only in their origin country but also in their host country for those having dual citizenship. Our data also reveal a large range of social remittances between destination and origin countries, which translate into voting recommendations that exert strong influence when they come from the migrants.

Chauvet L., Guillaumont P. (2009), Aid, volatility, and growth again : when aid volatility matters and when it does not, Review of development economics, 13, 3, p. 452-463

In previous papers the authors have argued that aid is likely to mitigate the negative effects of external shocks on economic growth (i.e. that aid is more effective in countries which are more vulnerable to external shocks). Recently an important debate has emerged about the possible negative effects of aid volatility itself. However, the cushioning effect of aid may involve some volatility in aid flows, which then is not necessarily negative for growth. In this paper the authors examine to what extent the time profile of aid disbursements may contribute to an increase or a decrease of aid effectiveness. They first show that aid, even if volatile, is not clearly as pro-cyclical as is often argued, and, even if pro-cyclical, is not necessarily destabilizing. They measure aid volatility by several methods and assess pro-cyclicality of aid with respect to exports, thus departing from previous literature, which usually assess pro-cyclicality of aid with respect to national income or fiscal receipts. The stabilizing/destabilizing nature of aid is measured by the difference in the volatility of exports and the volatility of the aid plus export flows. Then, in order to take into account the diversity of shocks to which aid can respond, they consider the effect of aid on income volatility and again find that aid is making growth more stable, while its volatility reduces this effect. They finally show through growth regressions that the higher effectiveness of aid in vulnerable countries is to a large extent due to its stabilizing effect.

Chauvet L., Gubert F., Mesplé-Somps S. (2009), Les transferts des migrants sont-ils plus efficaces que l'aide pour améliorer la santé des enfants ? Une évaluation économétrique sur des données inter et intra-pays, Revue d'économie du développement, 23, 4, p. 41-80

Cet article analyse l'impact respectif de l'aide publique au développement et des envois de fonds des migrants sur le développement humain mesuré par les taux de mortalité infantile et infanto-juvénile. Il mobilise pour ce faire des données de panel portant sur un échantillon de 109 pays en développement ainsi que des données désagrégées par quintile de revenu portant sur un échantillon de 47 pays en développement. Outre l'évaluation de l'impact des transferts et de l'aide sur la réduction de la mortalité infantile et infanto-juvénile, cet article examine deux autres questions : quel est l'effet net de la migration une fois pris en compte l'effet de la migration des personnels de santé ? Quel est l'impact de l'aide et des transferts sur les disparités intra-pays en matière de mortalité infantile ? Nos résultats tendent à montrer que les transferts des migrants réduisent significativement le taux de mortalité des enfants et que l'impact de l'aide publique est non linéaire, cette dernière étant plus efficace dans les pays les plus pauvres. En revanche, la migration des personnels de santé apparaît particulièrement dommageable pour les performances en matière de santé de ces pays. L'effet net de la migration sur le taux de mortalité des enfants s'en trouve donc réduit. Enfin, les transferts des migrants semblent davantage réduire la mortalité des enfants des ménages appartenant aux quintiles les plus riches, alors qu'aucun effet pro-pauvre ou pro-riche de l'aide n'est décelé.

The objective of the paper is to analyze the respective impact of aid and remittances on human development as measured by infant and child mortality rates. Panel data on a sample of 109 developing countries, and cross-country quintile-level data on a sample of 47 developing countries are alternatively used. In addition to assessing the extent to which health aid and remittances contribute to reduce child health disparities between countries, the paper addresses two other questions. What is the net effect of migration when the brain drain of health workers is accounted for? What is the effective impact of aid and remittances on intra-country child health disparities? Our results tend to show that remittances significantly improve child health and that the impact of health aid is non-linear, suggesting that aid to the health sector is more effective in the poorest countries. By contrast, medical brain drain, as measured by the expatriation rate of physicians, is found to have a harmful impact on health outcomes. The net impact of migration on human development is therefore mitigated. Last, remittances seem to be much more effective in improving health outcomes for children belonging to the richest households, whereas neither pro-poor nor anti-poor effect is found for health aid.

Chauvet L., Collier P. (2009), Elections and Economic Policy in Developing Countries, Economic Policy, 24, 59, p. 509-550

Cet article analyse l'influence des élections sur les politiques économiques et la gouvernance dans les pays en développement. Nous distinguons un effet structurel des élections - via la responsabilité politique - d'un effet cyclique potentiellement perturbateur. Puisque ces deux effets se compensent, ils ne peuvent être considérés séparément. Nous menons une analyse économétrique sur un échantillon de 80 pays en développement pour identifier l'impact des élections sur l'amélioration des politiques économiques. Nous utilisons les changements positifs du Country Policy and Institutional Assessment de la Banque mondiale et de l'International Country Risk Guide pour saisir les améliorations des politiques économiques et de la gouvernance. Nous trouvons que l'effet structurel et l'effet cyclique des élections sont tous deux importants. L'effet cyclique des élections suggère que les améliorations de politiques économiques sont plus probables à mi-mandat. Nous utilisons la fréquence des élections pour saisir leur effet structurel. Il semble que des élections fréquentes améliorent la qualité des politiques économiques et de la gouvernance, une fois pris en compte leur effet cyclique. Une exception importante à cet effet structurel positif concerne les élections dont le processus est mal mené : elles n'ont dans ce cas pas d'effet structurel positif. Il semble donc que des élections honnêtes augmentent la responsabilité politique des gouvernements et les incitent ainsi à améliorer les politiques économiques et la gouvernance ; mais si le candidat peut gagner par fraude, cette chaine est rompue.

This paper explores the impact of elections on economic policies and governance in developing countries. We distinguish between a structural effect, which increases accountability, and a cyclical effect which may be disruptive. Since the effects are offsetting, neither can be analyzed in isolation. We implement an econometric analysis on more than 80 developing countries using positive changes in the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment of the World Bank and the International Country Risk Guide as signaling improvements in economic policy and governance. We find that both structural and cyclical effects matter. The cyclical effect suggests that mid-term is the best moment for policy change. We investigate the structural effect by comparing different frequencies of elections. Except at the extremes, a higher frequency of elections improves both policy and governance net of any cyclical effect. The important exception to this benign net effect is if the electoral process is badly conducted. Badly conducted elections have no structural efficacy for policy improvement. A reasonable interpretation of our results is that honest elections increase accountability and thereby discipline governments to improve economic policy and governance, but that if candidates can win by fraud this chain is broken.

Chauvet L., Collier P. (2008), Aid and Reform in Failing States, Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 22, 1, p. 15-24

This paper reviews the policy implications of research on reform in failing states (Chauvet and Collier 2006, 2007a, 2007b, 2008; Chauvet et al. 2006; Chauvet et al. 2007a, 2007b). After providing a precise definition of state failure and reform in such states, we present the internal constraints impeding reform in failing states. Élite preferences and insufficient social knowledge seem to be the major constraints on reform. We find that financial aid tends to allow the ruling élite to postpone reform. Technical assistance, however, has some effectiveness in relaxing the capacity constraint to implement reform, notably right at the beginning of reform.

Mesplé-Somps S., Chauvet L. (2007), Impact des financements internationaux sur les inégalités des pays en développement, Revue économique, 58, 3, p. 735-744

Nous proposons une analyse économétrique de l'impact sur la distribution des revenus de quatre sources de flux de financements internationaux : les échanges commerciaux, les investissements directs étrangers (IDE), l'aide publique et les transferts des migrants. Nos estimations suggèrent que les IDE augmentent les inégalités, à l'opposé des transferts des migrants. L'ouverture semble être favorable aux populations pauvres dans les pays à revenu intermédiaire, tandis que l'aide est favorable aux classes moyennes dans les pays démocratiques. Des simulations suggèrent qu'en moyenne le fort impact négatif des IDE sur les inégalités n'est pas totalement compensé par l'influence plutôt égalitaire des trois autres sources de financement. De plus, les pays africains semblent se distinguer en ce qui concerne l'impact distributif des flux commerciaux et d'aide.

We propose an econometric analysis of the distributive impact of trade flows, foreign direct investment (FDI), official aid and migrants' remittances. Results suggest that FDI increases inequality, while remittances tend to reduce inequality. Trade and aid have a non-linear relationship with income distribution: trade favours the poorest in middle income countries while aid favours the middle class in democracies. Simulations suggest that, on average, the highly adverse impact on distribution of FDI is not compensated by the other three sources of financing. Moreover, African countries show a different pattern of distributional impact of trade and aid.

Chauvet L. (2003), Socio-political instability and the allocation of international aid by donors, European Journal of Political Economy, 19, 1, p. 33-59

This paper investigates empirically how three types of socio-political instability--elite, violent, and social--influence international aid allocation by donors. The results indicate that aid allocation depends on the type of instability (the effect of violent and elite instability is positive, whereas social instability has a negative influence), characteristics of recipient countries (whether the recipient country is a low-income country or an oil exporter), and the kind of aid received (bilateral or multilateral).

Chauvet L. (2002), Foreign aid allocation and socio-political instabilites, Revue Economique, 53, 3, p. 545-556

Cet article propose une analyse économétrique des effets de trois types d'instabilités sociopolitiques - instabilités violente, sociale et d'élite - sur l'allocation de l'aide internationale. En utilisant l'application de la méthode des moments généra­lisés développée par Arellano et Bond [1991], nous montrons que l'effet de l'instabilité sociopolitique sur l'allocation de l'aide dépend du type d'instabilité que l'on considère ainsi que des caractéristiques des pays receveurs (les donneurs réagissent différemment à l'instabilité sociopolitique des pays à faible revenu et à celle des pays exportateurs de pétrole).

This paper proposes an econometric analysis of the effects of three kinds of socio-political instability - violent, social and elite - on foreign aid allocation. Arellano and Bond [1991] application of the generalized method of moments estima­tions show that the effect of socio-political instabilities on aid allocation depends both on the kind of instability and on receiving countries' characteristics (whether the receiving country is a low income country or an oil exporter).

Chapitres d'ouvrage

Mesplé-Somps S., Gubert F., Chauvet L., Mesplé-Somps S. (2013), Transferts migratoires et démocratisation, in GONIN P., KOTLOK N., PÉROUSE DE MONTCLOS M-A. (dir.), La tragédie malienne, Paris, Vendémiaire, p. 227-241

Chauvet L., Gubert F., Mesplé-Somps S. (2010), Are Remittances More Effective Than Aid to Reduce Child Mortality? An Empirical Assessment Using Inter and Intra-Country Data, in Yifu Lin J. (eds), Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2009, Global, p. 472

Collier P., Chauvet L., Hegre H. (2009), The security challenges in conflict prone countries, in Lomborg B. (eds), Global Crisis, Global Solutions, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press

Communications

Chauvet L., Jacolin L. (2015), Financial Inclusion and Firms performance, Séminaire Banque de France / Ferdi, Paris, France

This study focuses on the impact financial development on the performance of firms in countries with low financial development. Previous studies focusing on financial depth alone find that financial development does not affect, or has a negative effect on, economic growth in developing countries with undersized financial systems. Using firm-level data in panel for a sample of 26 countries, we find that this hypothesis is invalidated if one takes into account not only financial depth but also financial inclusion, i.e. the distribution of access to financial services. Contrary to developed countries where financial inclusion is nearly universal, differences in access to credit among firms help explaining differences in firms perfor- mance. We measure financial inclusion as the share of firms who have access to bank overdraft facilities, or, alternatively, to any external source of financing, at the sectoral level. We find that whereas financial devel- opment does not affect firm performance on average, financial inclusion has a positive effect on firms growth. Where financial inclusion is low, financial development may create crowding out effects in favor of a minority of firms or government that phase out or reverse its expected positive effects of financial development on growth. Additional testing show that these effects affect all firms, irrespective of size, or whether they have access to bank credit or not. We interpret these results as showing that financial deepening increases firms growth only if it widely distributed among firms, i. e. financial inclusion is high.

Chauvet L., Ehrhart H. (2014), Aid and Growth Evidence from Firm-level Data, AFSE 2015 64th Congress, Rennes, France

This paper explores the impact of foreign aid on firms growth for a panel of 5,640 firms in 29 developing countries, 11 of which in Africa. Using the World Bank Enterprise Surveys data and controlling for fi rms fixed e ffects, we fi nd a positive impact of foreign aid on sales growth. This result is robust to various checks, notably to the instrumentation of aid. We then identify the main infrastructure obstacles to rms growth and examine whether foreign aid contributes to relaxing those constraints. We nd that electricity and transport are perceived as important constraints which tend to decrease the growth rate of fi rms, as well as the utilization of their productive capacity. Evidence on the impact of aid on infrastructure obstacles suggests that total aid and aid to the energy sector tend to decrease electricity obstacles. We also show that transport aid projects, geo-localized at the region level, tend to decrease the transport obstacles.

Chauvet L., Gubert F., Mercier M., Mesplé-Somps S. (2013), Migrants' Home Town Associations and Local Development in Mali, 12th journées Louis-André Gérard-Varet, Aix-en-Provence, France

This paper assesses the impact of migrants' Home Town Associations (HTAs) locatedin France on the provision of local public goods in Mali. To this end, we computed adataset on all the HTAs that have been created by Malian migrants in France since 1981and geo-localised their interventions on the Malian territory. Thanks to Malian census data, we also built a panel dataset informing the provision of a range of public goods in all the Malian localities over the 1976-2009 period. These two sources of data allow us to implement a double di erence strategy, and to compare localities with and without an HTA, before and after its creation. We not only assess whether "having an HTA"makes a di erence in terms of local development, but also whether the intensity of thetreatment as measured by the number of HTAs intervening in each locality or the numberof year under treatment leads to di erentiated impacts. We nd that Malian HTAs havesigni cantly contributed to improve the provision of water amenities (mainly fountains), health centers and electricity connection over the 1987-2009 period. The impact is found to be stronger when the focus is on the earlier period (before 1998).

Chauvet L., Gubert F., Mesplé-Somps S. (2008), Are Remittances More Effective Than Aid To Improve Child Health? An Empirical Assessment using Inter and Intra-Country Data, Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, Cape Town, SOUTH AFRICA

The objective of the paper is to analyze the respective impact of aid and remittances onhuman development as measured by infant and child mortality rates and stunting incidence.Panel data on a sample of 98 developing countries, and cross-country quintile-level data on asample of 47 developing countries are alternatively used. In addition to assessing the extentto which health aid and remittances contribute to reduce child health disparities betweencountries, the paper addresses two other questions. What is the net effect of migration whenthe brain drain of health workers is accounted for? What is the effective impact of aid andremittances on intra-country child health disparities? Our results suggest that bothremittances and health aid significantly improve child health outcomes. The impact of healthaid is non-linear, though, suggesting that aid to the health sector is more effective in thepoorest countries. By contrast, medical brain drain, as measured by the expatriation rate ofphysicians, is found to have a harmful impact on health outcomes. The net impact ofmigration on human development is therefore mitigated. Medical brain drain is also found toreduce the effectiveness of health aid. Last, remittances seem to be much more effective in improving health outcomes for children belonging to the richest households, whereas neither pro-poor nor anti-poor effect is found for health aid.

Documents de travail

Chauvet L., Collier P., Fuster A. (2013), Supervision and Project Performance: A Principal-Agent Approach, DIAL Document de travail, Paris, Université Paris-Dauphine, 36

Cet article étend et applique la théorie Principal-Agent à la performance des projets d'aide. Les intérêts du donneur (le principal) et du gouvernement receveur (l'agent) peuvent différer de manière importante. Dans le modèle, l'effort mis en oeuvre pour observer l'agent est une variable de contrôle. Nous montrons qu'une implication du modèle principal-agent est que le principal devrait faire d'autant plus d'effort pour observer l'agent quand ses intérêts divergent de ceux de l'agent. Nous testons ensuite ces prédictions en utilisant les données de performance des projets d'aide de la Banque mondiale. Nous mesurons le degré de divergence entre les intérêts du donneur et du receveur, telle que perçue par le donneur, par la classification des receveurs comme 'partenariats difficiles'. Comme prédit par le modèle, nous trouvons que la supervision des projets d'aide par le donneur permet d'autant plus d'assurer le succès des projets que les intérêts du donneur et du receveur diffèrent. Toutefois, le donneur ne semble pas faire plus d'effort de supervision dans les partenariats difficiles.

This paper extends and applies principal-agent theory to the performance of donor projects. There is variation in the degree of divergence between the interests of the donor (the principal) and the recipient government (the agent). Further, the effort expended on observation of the agent is a control variable. We show that in a wide range of circumstances an implication of principal-agent theory is that the principal should put greater effort into observation the wider is the divergence of interest with the agent. We then test this prediction using data on World Bank project performance. We measure the degree of divergence between donor and recipient interests, as perceived by the donor, through a donor classification system of recipient governments. Consistent with the theory, we find that donor supervision of projects is significantly more effective in improving project performance where interests are widely divergent. However, donors do not put more effort into the supervision of projects in such cases.

Chauvet L., Collier P. (2006), Helping Hand? Aid to Failing States, DIAL Document de travail, Paris, IRD, 24

Les Etats fragiles auxquels nous nous intéressons sont les pays à faible revenu caractérisés par la faiblesse de leurs institutions et de leurs politiques économiques. Le statut d'Etat fragile est très persistant. Nous développons une théorie des réformes, adaptée à ce contexte, dans laquelle plusieurs caractéristiques de la société peuvent potentiellement contraindre les réformes. Nous identifions la manière dont l'aide peut influencer ces différentes contraintes en distinguant l'assistance technique du reste de l'aide. Nous proposons ensuite des tests économétriques de manière à identifier les principales contraintes aux réformes dans les Etats fragiles, et le rôle de l'aide. Ces tests suggèrent que les contraintes de capacité institutionnelle et de préférences de l'élite au pouvoir sont particulièrement importantes dans les Etats fragiles. De plus, en début de réforme, l'assistance technique renforce le processus de réforme tandis que l'aide financière le fragilise.

We define 'failing states' are those low-income states in which policy and governance is persistently very bad. We develop a theory of reform in these states in which several characteristics of the society might potentially be the binding constraint on change. We then introduce aid, disaggregated into technical assistance and finance, showing how it might affect these constraints. We then test our theory of aid and reform on global data. We estimate hazard functions to establish what enhances the prospects of sustained reform. We find that a proxy for the relaxation of the binding constraints postulated in the theory is highly significant. There is some evidence that both technical capacity in the society and elite interests are particularly important. Early aid has substantial but offsetting effects: technical assistance consolidates incipient reform whereas finance chills it.

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