Trouillet J. (2015), Credit rating agencies, shock and public expectations, AFSE 2015 64th Congress, Rennes, France
This paper studies the behavior of a Credit Rating Agency after a shock. As it has already been discussed, reputation incentives may not be sufficient to discipline a CRA. In a cheap-talk game, I show that a CRA may have incentives to be lax in its ratings when a bubble is about to burst and severe after a shock that has hit its reputation and the economy. The consequences may be severe depending on the economy we are thinking of, emerging markets or an economy with financial disintermediation may be the most threatened. This can be see as one of the factors that may have foster the last financial crisis, especially the south east asian and the subprime ones.