Garcilazo E., Oliveira Martins J. (2015), The Contribution of Regions to Aggregate Growth in the OECD, Economic Geography, 91, 2, p. 205-221
This article investigates the contribution of regions to aggregate growth. We find a great degree of heterogeneity in the performance of Territorial Level 3 ( TL3) regions of the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). The regional contributions to aggregate growth follow a power law, with a coefficient around 1.2 (in absolute terms). This implies that Few-Large ( FL) regions contribute disproportionately to aggregate growth whereas Many-Small ( MS) individual regions contribute only marginally. Because the large number of these smaller regions and the decay of their contribution to growth is slow (generating a fat tail distribution), their cumulated contribution is actually around two-thirds of aggregate growth.
Braga de Macedo J., Rocha B., Oliveira Martins J. (2014), Are Complementary Reforms a 'Luxury' for Developing Countries?, Journal of Comparative Economics, 42, 2, p. 417-435
This paper investigates the impact of complementarity reforms on growth and how it depends on GDP per capita. Based on reform data for six policy areas compiled from various sources during the period 1994-2006 for over 100 countries, we compute composite indicators of reform level and complementarity. We provide qualitative justification for the existence of pair-wise complementarities among policy areas. We then use cross-section and panel data estimates to test the effect of reform level and complementarity on GDP per capita growth. We found reforms to be positively related and their dispersion (or the inverse of complementarity) negatively related to growth, controlling for initial conditions, monetary stability and other structural and institutional variables, as well as endogeneity of reform level and complementarity. We show that the effect of policy complementarity is a stronger condition for sustainable growth in developing than in advanced countries, to conclude that complementary reforms are not a 'luxury' for developing countries.
El Mekkaoui-De Freitas N., Oliveira Martins J. (2014), Health, Pension Benefits and Longevity How They Affect Household Savings?, The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 3, p. 21â28
This paper analyses the impact of health, pension systems and longevity on savings. It uses a simple life-cycle model embodying social transfers (health care and pension expenditures) and changes in longevity to determine the level of household savings. From this model, we derived an econometric specification, augmented with the effects of public budget balances. The model is estimated for a panel of 22 OECD countries for the period 1970-2009. Our principal result is that, from the point of view of incentive to save, health transfers have a similar impact as pension replacement rates. Therefore, welfare reforms that reduce replacement rates without reforming health system may not have all the expected impact on household savings. In line with life-cycle theory, we found that longevity increases saving ratios.
Burniaux J-M., Oliveira Martins J. (2012), Carbon leakages : a general equilibrium view, Economic theory, 49, 2, p. 473-495
The effectiveness of unilateral action to curb carbon emissions has been dismissed because of possible "carbon leakages", this referring to the rise of emissions in non-participating countries. This paper offers a general equilibrium (GE) exploration of the key mechanisms and factors underlying the size of carbon leakages. We developed a two-region, two-goods simplified GE framework, incorporating three types of fossil fuels (coal, oil and low-carbon energy), international trade and capital mobility. The model was designed to make tractable extensive multidimensional sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that the coal supply elasticity plays a critical role, while substitution elasticities between traded goods and international capital mobility appear relatively less influential. The shape of the production function also matters for the size of the leakages. Confirming the results obtained with large computable GE models, for a wide range of parameters' values, carbon leakages appear to be small. Therefore, the argument that unilateral carbon abatement action taken by a large group of countries (such as the Annex 1 group) is flawed by significant carbon leakages is not supported by our sensitivity analysis. The likelihood of small leakages favours in fact the formation of a worldwide coalition to stabilise climate change.
Dupont J., Guellec D., Oliveira Martins J. (2011), OECD Productivity Growth in the 2000s : A Descriptive Analysis of the Impact of Sectoral Effects and Innovation, OECD Journal : Economic Studies, 1, 1, p. 23
This paper brings together the latest data and OECD productivity indicators in different areas with the aim of reviewing the main productivity trends over the past decade, comparing the United States, Europe and to some extent Japan. Concerning economy wide indicators of productivity, the slowdown appears to be due to a significant slowdown in investment in information and communication technologies (ICT) followed by a decrease in multi-factor productivity (MFP). However, a new set of indicators of MFP growth by industry shows that the decline of productivity is particularly marked in sectors such as construction and market services. Looking for possible explanations of the decline, a marked slowdown in innovation emerged as the most likely cause. It concludes that, if no new wave of innovation materialises, comparable in size to the one of the late 1990s (around notably the Internet), the OECD trend productivity growth is not likely to resume at its end-1990s level. Only a recovery in innovation itself could trigger a sustainable recovery in productivity in the major OECD countries.
Oliveira Martins J., El Mekkaoui de Freitas N. (2009), Risque de dépendance, cycle de vie et épargne des ménages, Risques, 78, p. 114-116
de la Maisonneuve C., Strauss H., Boarini R., Oliveira Martins J. (2009), The Policy Determinants of Investment in Tertiary Education, OECD Journal: Economic Studies, 2009, p. 119-155
The purpose of this article is to discuss how policies can affect investment in tertiary education in ways that would eliminate some of the perceived shortcomings of existing systems, while preserving or (preferably) enhancing equality of access to higher education. To this end, the analysis focuses on the institutional set-up of tertiary education that provides incentives for supplying quality educational services; the private returns from higher education which act to attract prospective students; and, individual funding mechanisms to help overcome the liquidity constraints that may restrict participation in higher education. These mechanisms should also be designed so as to prevent uncertainty about future incomes from unduly deterring investment in tertiary studies by risk-averse individuals.
Boarini R., Strauss H., de la Maisonneuve C., Nicoletti G., Oliveira Martins J. (2008), Investment in Tertiary Education : Main Determinants and Implications for Policy, CESifo Economic Studies, 54, 2, p. 277-312
Many OECD countries are aiming to reform their tertiary education (TE) systems. This work explores the determinants of the investment in TE, with a focus on institutional setting of TE systems and private incentives to undertake years of schooling beyond upper-secondary degree level. For this purpose the article first develops estimates of three main drivers of graduation patterns, namely institutional arrangements of TE supply, availability of funding for TE students, and private returns to tertiary studies. Second, the article empirically assesses how these three factors affect graduation ratios. Based on this analysis, the article then discusses policy-levers of TE investment and explores possible routes of reform for TE systems in OECD countries. The main findings are as follows: graduation ratios increase with private returns to TE as well with the autonomy and accountability of the supply of education. Lack or insufficient financial help to tertiary students negatively affects graduation ratios. There is a number of policy-levers to stimulate investment in TE. They include policies affecting labour market premia, the degree of flexibility of TE provision and the availability of funding for students.
Oliveira Martins J., De Macedo J. (2008), Growth, Reform Indicators and Policy Complementarities, Economics of Transition, 16, 2, p. 141-164
In order to assess the growth implications of policy complementarities, this paper applies second-best results to reform indicators. During the transition from central planning to EU integration, which corresponds to a policy cycle, a complementarity index based on structural indicators compiled by the European Bank for Reconstruc- tion and Development (EBRD) decreases and then increases while the level of reforms tends to rise throughout. Corrected for initial conditions, the extent of macroeconomic stabilization and endogeneity, the level of reforms and changes in their complementarity are found to be positively related to output growth. The study uses panel data for 27 countries between 1989 and 2004.
Garibaldi P., Oliveira Martins J., van Ours J. (2010), Ageing, Health, and Productivity : The Economics of Increased Life Expectancy, London, Oxford University Press, 280 p.
Oliveira Martins J., Mouradian F., Garcilazo E. (2013), Patterns and Trends in Services Related Activities in OECD Regions, in Cuadrado Roura J. (eds), Service Industries and Regions: Growth, Location and Regional Effects, Berlin, Springer, p. 65-108
Araújo S., Oliveira Martins J. (2011), The Great Synchronisation : tracking the trade collapse with high-frequency data, in Baldwin R. (eds), The Great Trade Collapse : Causes, Consequences and Prospects, London, Centre for Economic Policy Research, p. 101-106
While several culprits have been proposed to explain the current trade collapse (e.g. the credit crunch, global production chains, generalised loss of confidence), the great synchronisation underlying the collapse suggests that it is very probably their interaction, rather than each individual effect, that might best explain why international trade has taken such an epic hit in this global crisis. The high-frequency pattern of trade flows also reveals systemic propagation effects during the crisis that would be interesting to analyze further, as well as new patterns in the structure of trade flows. All these issues open interesting research questions for international trade economists.
Dormont B., Oliveira Martins J., Pelgrin F., Suhrcke M. (2010), Health, Expenditure, Longevity and Growth, in Garibaldi P., Oliveira Martins J., van Ours J. (eds), Ageing, Health, and Productivity : The Economics of Increased Life Expectancy, London, Oxford University Press
El Mekkaoui de Freitas N., Oliveira Martins J. (2008), Structure de consommation, protection sociale et revenu de retraite, Séminaire "Ageing and Risk" Paris-Dauphine, Paris, France
Dormont B., Oliveira Martins J., Pelgrin F., Suhrcke M. (2007), Health expenditures, longevity and growth, IX annual conference of the Fondazione Rodolfo de Benedetti on Health, longevity and productivity, Limone sul Garda, ITALY
This paper offers an integrated view of the relationships between health spending, medical innovation, health status, growth and welfare. Health spending triggers technological progress, which is a potential source of better outcomes in terms of longevity and quality of life, a direct source of growth for the bio-tech industries and an indirect source of growth through improved of human capital. The latter contributes to GDP per capita through two main channels: higher participation of the population in the labour force and higher labour productivity levels. In turn, income growth induces an increase in health expenditure, as richer countries tend to spend a higher share of their income on health. To analyse these interactions, the paper first focuses on demographic facts, disentangling the role of longevity and carrying out some 'thought experiments' on the indexation of active life on longevity. It then analyses the links between health care expenditures, technology and health status from a micro-level perspective. We investigate empirically the relation between GDP growth and health expenditures and develop a projection method to assess the size of total aggregate expenditures that could be channeled to the health sector up to 2050 for the US, Europe and Japan. We finally assess the potential impact of these health expenditures and better health status on potential growth and productivity.
El Mekkaoui de Freitas N., Oliveira Martins J. (2011), How retirement, health benefits and longevity affect household savings ?, Cahiers de la Chaire les Particuliers Face aux Risques, Paris, Université Paris-Dauphine, 26
This paper analyses the impact of welfare systems and longevity on savings. It develops a life-cycle model embodying social transfers (health care and pension expenditures) and changes in longevity to determine the level of household savings. We simulated an aggregate saving equation and derived a reduced-form model, together with other factors such as public deficits and the population structure. The model is estimated for a panel of 18 OECD countries. Our principal result is that both pension and health transfers may have a significant negative impact on the household saving. Therefore these interactions should be taken account when designing welfare reforms.
El Mekkaoui de Freitas N., Oliveira Martins J. (2008), Consumption Structure, Welfare Goods and Retirement Income: Linking the Ageing Puzzles, Cahiers de la Chaire "Les Particuliers face au Risques", Paris, Université Paris-Dauphine, 25
While the empirical evidence tends to support some predictions of the life-cycle theory, a number of puzzles remain: an ageing-consumption, an ageing-saving, a saving-capitalisation and a saving-longevity puzzles have been put forward in the literature. This paper analyses the links between these puzzles and develops a model relating usual life-cycle variables, social transfers (public health care expenditures and the generosity of pension systems) to the level of savings. A reduced-form model using a panel of 18 OECD countries is tested, confirming the proposed explanations for the puzzles, together with other factors such as public deficits (Ricardian equivalence) and the population structure. We found that the relative generosity of welfare systems have a significant negative impact on household saving rate. It can also explain why the increase in longevity does not have had in general a positive impact on the household saving ratio.
Antolín P., de la Maisonneuve C., Gonand F., Oliveira Martins J., Yoo K-Y. (2005), The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, Paris, OECD, 101
This paper examines the channels through which ageing will shape the main economic factors that in turn affect potential growth; identifies current policy settings that may in fact amplify the adverse impact of demographic trends; and sets out policy reforms that will work to temper the effects of ageing on growth. The paper begins with a brief discussion of demographic issues. The analysis first focuses on the impact of these trends on the future level and structure of consumption, which may affect aggregate saving and the structure of the economy, respectively. Then, it explores the main channels through which ageing affects the supply side of the economy following a production function approach: capital markets, labour markets and productivity. The empirical analysis focuses on a subset of large OECD countries with differing ageing patterns and generosity of pension systems. Using a simple general equilibrium overlapping generations model and considering alternative reform scenarios, some illustrative simulations are presented decomposing the effects of ageing on potential GDP per capita growth and economic convergence within OECD countries.