Curriculum vitae

Gubert Flore

Chargé de recherche IRD

flore.GUBERTping@dauphinepong.fr

Publications

Articles

Chauvet L., Gubert F., Mercier M., Mesplé-Somps S. (2015), Migrants' Home Town Associations and Local Development in Mali, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 117, 2, p. 686-722

Nous analysons l'impact des associations de migrants (AM) de Maliens vivant en France sur la disponibilité en biens publics au Mali. Pour ce faire, nous avons constitué une base originale de données qui recense l'ensemble des AM maliennes enregistrées au Journal Officiel français depuis 1981 et qui géo-référence leurs lieux d'intervention. Cette base est couplée avec quatre recensements exhaustifs qui permettent de connaître la disponibilité en biens publics de chaque village malien de 1976 à 2009. En mettant en oeuvre une estimation en double différences, nous montrons que les AM maliennes ont significativement contribué à l'augmentation du nombre d'écoles, de centres de santé et d'adduction d'eau sur la période 1987-2009. Plus précisément, on observe que la différence entre le groupe de villages traités et le groupe de contrôle concernant l'adduction en eau est dû à des investissements menés durant la seconde période (1998-2009) tandis que les financements des AM concernant les écoles et les centres de santé ont eu lieu tout au long de la période 1987-2009.

This paper explores the impact of Malian migrants' Home Town Associations (HTAs) located in France on the provision of local public goods in Mali. To this end, we compute an original dataset on all the HTAs that have been created by Malian migrants in France since 1981 and geo-localize their interventions on the Malian territory. Thanks to four waves of Malian census, we also build a panel dataset on the provision of a range of public goods in all Malian villages over the 1976-2009 period. These two sources of data allow us to implement a difference-in-differences strategy, and to compare villages with and without an HTA, before and after HTAs developed their activity in Mali. We find that Malian HTAs have significantly contributed to improve the provision of schools, health centers and water amenities over the 1987-2009 period. When looking at the timing of the treatment, we observe that the difference between treated and control villages in terms of water amenities is mainly driven by the second period of observation (1998-2009), while schools and health centers exhibit significant differences during the whole period.

Bernard C., Chauvet L., Gubert F., Mercier M., Mesplé-Somps S. (2014), Malian Migrants' Home Town Associations: Insights from Two Original Surveys, Revue Européenne des Migrations Internationales, 30, 3 et 4, p. 109-137

Cet article présente deux dispositifs originaux decollecte de données sur les associations de migrants maliens présentes en France et dans le reste du monde : le premier s'est attaché àrecenser les associations de migrants maliens déclarées en France et à identifier leurs terrains d'intervention au Mali. Le second s'est greffé à une enquête nationale représentative réalisée en 2011 au Mali, et a consisté en l'ajout d'un module recensant l'ensemble des associations de ressortissants intervenant dans les communes et villages enquêtés. Ces deux dispositifs complémentaires confirment la propension élevée des Maliens de la région de Kayes à migrer et à se regrouper en association.Ils montrent également que ce fort engagement associatif n'est pas exclusif aux migrants originaires de la région de Kayes et résidant en France : les Maliens de France originaires d'autres régions, notamment Koulikoroet Mopti, sont eux aussi à l'origine de la création de nombreuses associations, tout comme les Maliens résidant dans d'autres pays.

This article presents two original datasets on Malian Migrants' Home TownAssociations (HTAs) located in France and in the rest of the world. The first is a census of the HTAs declared in the French Journal Officiel that provides detailed information on their area of intervention in Mali. The second is a representative survey implemented in Mali in 2011 that collected exhaustive information on abroad-based HTAs intervening in each commune and village of the sample. These two complementary datasets confirm that Malians coming from the region of Kayes are strongly prone to gather in HTAs, notably in France. They also show that this propensity to create HTAs is not exclusive to these migrants. A lot of HTAs were created by Malians coming from the regions of Koulikoro and Mopti, in France as well as in other destination countries.

Grimm M., Gubert F., Koriko O., Lay J., Nordman C. (2013), Kinship ties and entrepreneurship in Western Africa, Journal of Small Business & Entrepreneurship, 26, 2, p. 125-150

Les petits entrepreneurs des pays pauvres parviennent à obtenir un rendement marginal du capital relativement élevé, mais ne présentent que des taux de réinvestissement faibles. La littérature apporte peu de conclusions quant aux causes possibles. Nous examinons si la « redistribution forcée », c'est-à-dire les demandes abusives des proches parents, a une incidence sur l'affectation des capitaux et de la main d'oeuvre à l'entreprise familiale. Nous utilisons un ensemble original de données couvrant les entreprises familiales de sept centres économiques de l'Afrique de l'Ouest. Nous avons trouvé un certain nombre d'éléments prouvant que les liens de famille et de parenté dans la ville renforcent plutôt le besoin de main d'oeuvre et l'utilisation de capitaux. Cependant, plus les liens avec le village d'origine sont forts, et plus faible est l'utilisation d'intrants, ce qui conforte l'hypothèse de la « distribution forcée ». Etant donné que cette redistribution est en partie la conséquence d'un manque de mécanismes officiels d'assurance, ces résultats suggèrent que la fourniture d'une assurance maladie et d'autres dispositifs d'assurance pourrait avoir des effets indirects positifs sur le développement du secteur privé.

Small entrepreneurs in poor countries achieve relatively high marginal returns to capital but show only low re-investment rates. The literature is rather inconclusive about the possible causes. We explore whether 'forced redistribution', i.e. abusive demands by the kin, affects the allocation of capital and labor to the household firm. We use an original data-set covering household firms in seven economic centers in Western Africa. We find some evidence that family and kinship ties within the city rather enhance labor effort and the use of capital. However, the stronger the ties to the village of origin the lower input use which is supporting the 'forced redistribution' hypothesis. Given that such redistribution is partly the consequence of a lack of formal insurance mechanisms, these results suggest that the provision of health insurance and other insurance devices may have positive indirect effects on private sector development.

Chauvet L., Gubert F., Mesplé-Somps S. (2013), Aid, Remittances, Medical Brain Drain and Child Mortality: Evidence Using Inter and Intra-Country Data., The Journal of Development Studies, 49, 6, p. 801-818

This article analyses the respective impact of aid, remittances and medical brain drain (MBD) on child mortality using panel and cross-country quintile-level data on respectively 84 and 46 developing countries. Our results show that remittances reduce child mortality while MBD increases it. Health aid also significantly reduces child mortality but its impact is less robust than the impact of remittances. Remittances seem to be more effective in reducing mortality for children belonging to households from the upper classes, whereas neither a pro-poor nor anti-poor effect is found for health aid.

, The "Battles" of Paris and New York, an Analysis of the Transnational Electoral Behaviour of Senegalese Immigrants in France and the United States, Revue française de Science politique, 63, 5, p. 865-892

La plupart des États ont, ces dernières années, octroyé la double nationalité et la double citoyenneté à leurs ressortissants établis à l'étranger. Cet article mobilise les données issues d'une enquête multisituée originale réalisée en France et aux États-Unis lors du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle sénégalaise de 2012 pour analyser le comportement électoral des migrants sénégalais et les transferts sociaux entre pays d'accueil et d'origine. Nos résultats mettent en évidence la forte participation électorale des migrants, tant pour les élections de leur pays d'origine que pour celles de leur pays d'accueil pour ceux ayant la double nationalité, et l'importance des transferts sociaux entre les deux espaces qui se traduisent notamment par des consignes de vote dont l'influence s'exerce de manière prépondérante en direction du pays d'origine.

Dual nationality and citizenship, and external voting rights have been granted by a majority of countries for the last years. This article uses original data collected through a multi-sited survey among Senegalese migrants living in France and in the United States during the first round of Senegal's 2012 presidential election to analyse the electoral behaviour of Senegalese migrants and social remittances between destination and origin countries. Senegalese migrants are found to be strongly associated with high level of electoral participation not only in their origin country but also in their host country for those having dual citizenship. Our data also reveal a large range of social remittances between destination and origin countries, which translate into voting recommendations that exert strong influence when they come from the migrants.

Chort I., Senne J-N., Gubert F. (2012), Migrant networks as a basis for social control: Remittance incentives among Senegalese in France and Italy, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 42, 5, p. 858-874

The economic literature provides much evidence of the positive impact of social capital on migrants' economic outcomes, in particular through assistance upon arrival and insurance in times of hardship. Yet, although much less documented, migrant networks may well have a great influence on remittances to their home country and particularly to their origin households. Given all the services provided by the network, the fear of being ostracized by network members and being left with no support could provide incentives for migrants to commit to prevailing redistribution norms. In this perspective, remittances may be a fee that migrants pay to get access to network services. In this paper, we thus analyze to what extent migrant networks in the destination country influence the degree to which migrants meet the claims of those left behind. We first review existing models of remitting behavior and investigate how the potential role of networks could affect their main predictions. We then provide a simple illustrative theoretical framework to account for the double impact networks may have on remitting behavior, through the provision of services to migrants and the spread of information flows between home and host countries. We finally use an original dataset of 602 Senegalese migrants residing in France and Italy to explore the main predictions of our model.

Gubert F., Lassourd T., Mesplé-Somps S. (2010), Transferts de fonds des migrants, pauvreté et inégalités au Mali.Analyse à partir de trois scénarios contrefactuels, Revue Economique, 61, 6, p. 1023-1050

Cet article examine l'impact distributif des transferts des migrants au Mali, à partir de l'enquête sur les niveaux de vie elim 2006. Nous construisons différents scénarios contrefactuels qui corrigent du biais de sélection des ménages avec migrants. Nous montrons que les transferts des migrants internationaux réduisent la pauvreté de 5 à 11 % au niveau national et l'indice de Gini d'environ 5 %. Les ménages appartenant aux quintiles les plus pauvres apparaissent plus dépendants des transferts pour assurer leur consommation du fait de dotations en capital physique et humain insuffisantes pour leur permettre d'accéder à d'autres sources de revenu.

Using a 2006 household survey in Mali, we compare current poverty rates and inequality levels with counterfactual ones in the absence of migration and remittances. With proper hypotheses on migrants and a selection model, we are able to impute a counterfactual income for households currently receiving remittances. We show that remittances reduce poverty rates by 5% to 11% and the Gini coefficient by about 5%. Households in the bottom quintiles are more dependent on remittances, which are less substitutable by additional workforce.

Gubert F. (2010), Pourquoi migrer ? Le regard de la théorie économique, Regards croisés sur l'économie, 8, p. 96-105

De Vreyer P., Gubert F., Roubaud F. (2010), Migration, Self-selection and Returns to Education in the WAEMU, Journal of African Economies, 19, 1, p. 52-87

Nous utilisons les données issues d'enquêtes réalisées simultanément dans sept capitales de l'Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine pour documenter les caractéristiques des flux migratoires entre pays de l'Afrique de l'Ouest, puis pour estimer un modèle individuel de choix résidentiel faisant intervenir la différence de gains potentielle comme déterminant. Une estimation en trois étapes est réalisée qui permet de contrôler de l'auto-sélection des individus dans les différentes destinations. Nos résultats montrent que la Côte d'Ivoire demeure le premier pays d'accueil des migrants de la sous région, alors que le Burkina Faso et le Mali sont au contraire des pays d'émigration, principalement à destination de la Côte d'Ivoire. Le Bénin et le Togo sont à la fois des pays d'émigration et d'immigration. L'examen des caractéristiques des migrants montre qu'ils tendent à être moins éduqués que les non migrants, aussi bien dans leur pays d'origine que dans leur pays d'accueil, travaillent plus fréquemment dans le secteur informel et reçoivent une rémunération plus faible. Nos estimations économétriques montrent que la prise en compte de l'auto-sélection des individus dans les différentes destinations modifie les rendements estimés de l'éducation dans certains pays. Nous trouvons également que les différences de gains potentielles ont un impact très significatif sur les probabilités de choix et que, toutes autres choses égales par ailleurs, les individus tendent à vivre dans des pays où ils reçoivent des revenus plus élevés.

We use a unique set of identical labour force surveys that allow to observe, at the same time, migrants in seven WAEMU countries and their country of origin's labour market. We use these data first to document the patterns of migration flows in the sub-region, second to estimate the determinants of migration behaviour across these countries and to correct the estimated returns to education for the endogeneity of location choice. We finally estimate a structural model to evaluate the impact of expected earnings differentials on the probability of selecting a particular country to reside in. Our results show that Cote d'Ivoire remains the most important immigration country in the sub-region. Our data also suggests that Mali and Burkina Faso have been and still are major labour-exporting countries, largely towards Cote d'Ivoire. Benin and Togo, by contrast, combine both emigration and immigration. Looking at migrants characteristics we find that migrants tend to be less educated than non migrants in both their origin and destination countries, are more likely than natives to work in the informal sector and that they receive lower wages. Our econometric results suggest that not holding account of international migration in estimating returns to education yields upward biased estimates in three countries out of seven and downward biased estimates in two others. However, disparities in returns to education between capital cities do not vanish, suggesting that country-specific amenities and other un-measurable non-wage variables play important roles in the location choice of individuals with different levels of education. We also find that expected earnings differentials have a very significant effect on the choice probabilities: all else equal, people tend to live in countries in which their expected earnings are higher than elsewhere.

Robilliard A-S., Gubert F., de Vreyer P. (2010), L'expérience migratoire est-elle valorisable? Une analyse empirique sur données collectées auprès de migrants de retour et de non- migrants en Afrique de l'Ouest, Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, 97-98, p. 307-328

Les migrants bénéficient-ils d'une prime salariale sur le marché du travail de leur pays d'origine une fois rentrés au pays ? Qu'en est-il pour ceux qui dirigent une entreprise ou sont à leur compte? Les résultats de nos analyses suggèrent que les migrants de retour perçoivent une prime salariale forte lorsqu'ils reviennent d'un pays de l'OCDE. Le même résultat est observé pour ceux ayant le statut d'entrepreneurs. Cependant, étant donnée la faible proportion de migrants de retour dans la population des pays de la région, l'impact de la migration de retour sur le développement ne peut être que modéré.

Does migrants' experience abroad provide an earnings premium for wage earners and/or a productivity advantage for entrepreneurs? In terms of earnings, we find that experience abroad results in a substantial wage premium for migrants returning from an OECD country but not for other return migrants. Past migration in an OECD country also results in a productive advantage for returnees who became entrepreneurs upon returning. However, the low share of return migrants in the population of WAEMU countries suggests that the effectiveness of return migration as a driver of development is only moderate.

Roubaud F., Gubert F., de Vreyer P. (2009), Migration, self selection and returns to education in the WAEMU, Journal of African Economies, 18, 3, p. 45

Using data from labour force surveys conducted simultaneously in the capital cities of seven West African Economic and Monetary Union countries, we estimate a model of residential location choice in which expected earnings play a role. The model is first estimated in a reduced form. Estimates are then used to correct for the endogeneity of locational choice in the earnings equations estimated for each country. We find that migration behaviour has a significant effect in shaping earnings differentials between education levels and between the seven capital cities. Corrected predicted earnings in each country are then used as an independent variable in a structural multinomial logit of residential choice. Results show that individuals tend to reside in countries in which their expected earnings are higher than elsewhere.

Nordman C., Gubert F. (2009), Migration trends in North Africa: focus on Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria, OECD Journal : General Papers, 9, 4, p. 75-108

The article focuses on the economic development in several North African countries which include Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria, considering migration trends to Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD) countries. It discusses the several factors which affect migration trends in the countries which include economy, environment, and education along with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and poverty levels. It also discusses the impact of population on the labor market.

Chauvet L., Gubert F., Mesplé-Somps S. (2009), Les transferts des migrants sont-ils plus efficaces que l'aide pour améliorer la santé des enfants ? Une évaluation économétrique sur des données inter et intra-pays, Revue d'économie du développement, 23, 4, p. 41-80

Cet article analyse l'impact respectif de l'aide publique au développement et des envois de fonds des migrants sur le développement humain mesuré par les taux de mortalité infantile et infanto-juvénile. Il mobilise pour ce faire des données de panel portant sur un échantillon de 109 pays en développement ainsi que des données désagrégées par quintile de revenu portant sur un échantillon de 47 pays en développement. Outre l'évaluation de l'impact des transferts et de l'aide sur la réduction de la mortalité infantile et infanto-juvénile, cet article examine deux autres questions : quel est l'effet net de la migration une fois pris en compte l'effet de la migration des personnels de santé ? Quel est l'impact de l'aide et des transferts sur les disparités intra-pays en matière de mortalité infantile ? Nos résultats tendent à montrer que les transferts des migrants réduisent significativement le taux de mortalité des enfants et que l'impact de l'aide publique est non linéaire, cette dernière étant plus efficace dans les pays les plus pauvres. En revanche, la migration des personnels de santé apparaît particulièrement dommageable pour les performances en matière de santé de ces pays. L'effet net de la migration sur le taux de mortalité des enfants s'en trouve donc réduit. Enfin, les transferts des migrants semblent davantage réduire la mortalité des enfants des ménages appartenant aux quintiles les plus riches, alors qu'aucun effet pro-pauvre ou pro-riche de l'aide n'est décelé.

The objective of the paper is to analyze the respective impact of aid and remittances on human development as measured by infant and child mortality rates. Panel data on a sample of 109 developing countries, and cross-country quintile-level data on a sample of 47 developing countries are alternatively used. In addition to assessing the extent to which health aid and remittances contribute to reduce child health disparities between countries, the paper addresses two other questions. What is the net effect of migration when the brain drain of health workers is accounted for? What is the effective impact of aid and remittances on intra-country child health disparities? Our results tend to show that remittances significantly improve child health and that the impact of health aid is non-linear, suggesting that aid to the health sector is more effective in the poorest countries. By contrast, medical brain drain, as measured by the expatriation rate of physicians, is found to have a harmful impact on health outcomes. The net impact of migration on human development is therefore mitigated. Last, remittances seem to be much more effective in improving health outcomes for children belonging to the richest households, whereas neither pro-poor nor anti-poor effect is found for health aid.

Robilliard A-S., Gubert F. (2008), Risk and Schooling Decisions in Rural Madagascar: a Panel Data Analysis, Journal of African Economies, 17, 2, p. 207-238

La plupart des ménages ruraux malgaches tirent l'essentiel de leurs revenus de l'agriculture et sont exposés à un fort degré d'incertitude en raison de la fréquence et de l'intensité des aléas frappant les champs de culture ou les troupeaux. En l'absence de marchés du crédit ou de l'assurance, des moyens alternatifs pour éliminer ou atténuer les conséquences défavorables de cette incertitude doivent être trouvés par les ménages. Dans cet article, nous envisageons la possibilité que la mise au travail des enfants constitue un mécanisme de gestion des risques. Afin de tester cette hypothèse, nous examinons les déterminants de la scolarisation en cycle primaire d'un échantillon d'enfants issus de ménages ruraux. Nous examinons notamment le rôle des chocs de revenu subis par les ménages sur les probabilités d'entrée (dans) et de sortie hors de l'école de leurs membres en âge d'être scolarisés, en portant une attention particulière aux questions de genre et d'allocation intra-ménage des ressources. Les résultats indiquent que les chocs transitoires de revenu ont un impact significatif sur la probabilité de sortie de l'école mais pas sur la probabilité d'entrer à l'école. Cela suggère que la déscolarisation des enfants les plus âgés constitue un mécanisme de gestion du risque pour les ménages ruraux.

Most households in rural Madagascar are engaged in agriculture and derive a large share of their income from the production of food or cash crops and from animal husbandry. However, agricultural yields can be extremely volatile due to weather conditions, pests, insects, rodents and other calamities. As a result, households record large fluctuations in their incomes that must be dealt with. Since the usual consumption-smoothing market mechanisms are quite limited in the Malagasy context, households need to rely on nonmarket mechanisms or to adopt multi-faceted strategies to cope with risk. In this paper, we examine the possibility that parents obtain informal income insurance by letting their children work. We test this hypothesis by examining the relationship between household income shocks and human capital investment in children. In particular, we investigate whether children's propensity to join school and to drop out of school responds to transient shocks. We also investigate issues such as gender and intrahousehold resource allocation.

Gubert F. (2008), (In)cohérence des politiques migratoires et de codéveloppement françaises. Illustrations maliennes, Politique africaine, 109, p. 42-55

Cet article traite de la cohérence des politiques de développement, en prenant l'exemple des politiques migratoires et d'aide de la France à l'égard du Mali. Pour ce faire, l'histoire de l'émigration malienne vers la France est retracée, et les effets de la politique française de gestion des flux migratoires sur le volume et les caractéristiques des migrations en provenance de ce pays sont décrits. Finalement, les initiatives françaises en matière de codéveloppement sont analysées et critiquées.

This article focuses on the coherence of development policy, using French migration and co-development policies using Mali as a case study. The genesis and history of Malian migration to France are described, and the impact of French migration policies on the volume and composition of Malian migratory flows is analyzed. French codevelopment as a way to integrate development and migration policies is then portrayed, and its global coherence assessed.

Gubert F. (2007), Migration and Remittances: The Impact on the Countries of Origin: Commentary, Revue d'Economie du Developpement, 2-3, p. 183-88

Gubert F., Fafchamps M. (2007), Risk Sharing and Network Formation, The American Economic Review, 97, 2, p. 75-79

In this article the authors examine the motivation behind the formation of risk pools. They do so by using as suitable study data survey information collected among the rural poor of the Philippines. They discuss the possibility that network formation comes as the result of an attempt to maximize gains derived from shared risk to income within a social group. They note that the most significant benefits of pooled risk occur when individuals are of different occupations and there is a variety of risks faced.

Gubert F. (2007), Insurance Against Poverty : a book review, Journal of African Economies, 16, 1

Gubert F., Fafchamps M. (2007), The Formation of Risk Sharing Networks, Journal of Development Economics, 83, 2, p. 326-350

This paper examines the formation of risk sharing networks in the rural Philippines. We find that geographic proximity-possibly correlated with kinship-is a major determinant of mutual insurance links among villagers. Age and wealth differences also play an important role. In contrast, income correlation and differences in occupation are not determinants of network links. Reported network links have a strong effect on subsequent gifts and loans. Gifts between network partners are found to respond to shocks and to differences in health status. From this we conclude that intra-village mutual insurance links are largely determined by social and geographical proximity and are only weakly the result of purposeful diversification of income risk. The paper also makes a methodological contribution to the estimation of dyadic models.

Gubert F. (2007), Migration and Development: Mixed evidence from western Mali, Development, 50, 4, p. 94-100

Flore Gubert examines the investment-oriented initiatives of Malian migrants in their home to illustrate that out migration has a strong impact on poverty reduction in the Kayes area. She proposes that migration-cum-remittances alone do not create the right conditions for genuine development even if the non-productive use of remittances may strongly impact on the mainstays of development such as health, education, culture or the environment.

Gubert F., Fafchamps M. (2007), Contingent Loan Repayment in the Philippines, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 55, 4, p. 633-667

Using data from the Philippines, this article seeks to understand how households in the study area apparently manage to avoid falling into a debt trap in spite of frequent borrowing. Findings suggest that this is achieved via three institutional features. First, most informal debt carries no interest. Second, for all debts, repayment is postponed in case of a borrower's difficulty; this is the only insurance feature of debt repayment. Third, while debt principal is seldom forgiven or reduced, interest-bearing debt does not carry additional interest if debt repayment is delayed. This prevents interest charges from accumulating and debt from snowballing.

Gubert F. (2007), A propos de l'article d'Anibal Sanchez Aguilar : « Envois de fonds des migrants : quelle méthode de quantification privilégier ? », Statéco, 101, p. 127-130

Azam J-P., Gubert F. (2006), Migrants' Remittances and the Household in Africa: A Review of Evidence, Journal of African Economies, 15, suppl. 2, p. 426-462

This paper reviews some of the microeconomic evidence concerning migration and remittances in Africa. After a brief survey of the literature, it draws some lessons from two surveys performed in the Senegal River valley in Mali and in Senegal. The paper makes two main points. First, migration cannot be understood as an individual decision, but must instead be regarded as a collective decision made by the extended family or the village. It involves the strategic choice of sending its best offspring away with a view to diversify its risks and to build a social network. Then, remittances are to a large extent a contingent flow, aimed at buttressing the family's consumption in case of adverse shock. Secondly, however, this insurance system involves some moral hazard, as those remaining behind tend to exert less effort to take care of themselves, knowing that the migrants will compensate any consumption shortfall, with a high probability. These results undermine a very popular view about migration on the basis of relative deprivation and solve a puzzle that bugged this literature for nearly three decades: the rich families are more likely to send some migrants away and thus get more remittances, while they earn less income in the village because of moral hazard. Wealth makes them lazy, while low (earned) income does not make them poor!

Azam J-P., Gubert F. (2005), Those in Kayes. The impact of remittances on the recipients in Africa, Revue économique, 56, p. 1331-1358

Cet article décrit rapidement les migrations des Soninké et les interprète comme une stratégie de diversification des risques, à la lumière des développements théoriques récents. Les études historiques et ethnologiques de ces mouvements migratoires suggèrent que ce n'est pas seulement le bien-être des familles restant au village qui est assuré, mais également l'honneur du clan. Un modèle théorique en équilibre partiel est proposé pour saisir aussi simplement que possible ce phénomène. Celui-ci met en évidence le problème de risque moral qui en découle. Un test économétrique de cette prédiction est effectué sur des données d'enquête collectées par l'un des auteurs au sein de la région de Kayes (Mali), la principale zone d'origine des migrants maliens en France.

This article briefly describes the Soninke labor migration, and interprets it as a means of diversifying risk in a context of missing insurance and credit markets. Historical and anthropological studies on this ethnic group are briefly surveyed, and suggest that it is not only the well-being of those left behind which is insured by the migrants, but also the pride of the clan. A simple partial-equilibrium model is developed to capture this phenomenon, which gives rise to moral hazard problems. This prediction is tested econometrically using an original data set collected by one of the authors in the Kayes area (Western Mali), the main source of Soninke labor migration to France.

Roubaud F., Gubert F. (2003), Le financement des très petites entreprises urbaines : étude d'impact d'un projet de micro-finance à Antananarivo (Madagascar), Techniques financières et développement, 73, p. 8-19

Cet article expose les principaux résultats d'une étude d'impact d'une institution de micro-finance opérant à Antananarivo. Il débute par un état des lieux de la micro-finance à Madagascar et une présentation des besoins en financement des unités de production informelles. Il s'attache ensuite à décrire la clientèle de l'institution de micro-finance (IMF) concernée par l'étude. Il présente enfin les résultats de l'analyse de l'impact des financements accordés par cette institution à sa clientèle, en mobilisant la méthode des groupes appariés. L'ensemble de l'exposé repose sur les résultats de deux enquêtes ad hoc réalisées en 2001 : l'une sur un échantillon représentatif de 1 000 unités de production informelles de l'agglomération d'Antananarivo, l'autre sur un échantillon représentatif de 200 clients de l'IMF. Les résultats obtenus suggèrent que d'un point de vue strictement micro-économique, l'impact des financements accordés est largement positif. Les performances des micro-entreprises clientes semblent en effet avoir fortement évolué avec le recours au crédit, que ce soit en termes de productivité par travailleur ou par nombre d'heures travaillées, ou en termes de volume de production ou de chiffre d'affaires. Toutefois, en raison du très faible taux de pénétration des IMF à Antananarivo, il est vraisemblable que l'impact significatif et substantiel à l'échelle micro-économique soit extrêmement faible à l'échelle macro-économique. En terme de ciblage, l'analyse des caractéristiques des bénéficiaires montre que si l'IMF, conformément à sa mission, touche bien une clientèle de petites entreprises urbaines du secteur informel, elle ne s'adresse qu'à la frange "supérieure" de ce secteur.

This article highlights the main findings of an evaluation report on the impact of a microfinance program based in Antananarivo. It first provides background information on microfinance programs in Madagascar and on the market-demand for micro-loans. It then describes the main characteristics of the participants to the microfinance program under concern. It finally presents the results of the economic impact analysis of the program on the clients' microenterprises, using the matching estimators' method. The analysis is based on two original surveys conducted in 2001, which were administered to a large representative sample of microenterprises in Antananarivo and to a representative sample of clients respectively. The results suggest that the gains from microborrowing accrued to participants are large. Productivity, production levels and turnover are all found to have significantly increased thanks to credit. However, the accrued benefits from microfinance are likely to be small at a more aggregate level, as micro- finance programs have a very low coverage in urban areas. In terms of targeting, the results show that the microfinance program does exclusively benefit small unregistered production units but only the better-off ones.

Gubert F. (2002), Do Migrants Insure Those who Stay Behind? Evidence from the Kayes Area (Western Mali), Oxford Development Studies, 30, 3, p. 267-287

This article uses recent household survey data from the Kayes area (western Mali) to analyse the determinants of remittances from both internal and international migration. The underlying assumption is that remittances are part of an insurance contract between the migrant and his family. Although this idea is not new, few tests have appeared in the recent literature. After a discussion of various measures of crop income shocks, we employ Powell's censored least absolute deviation (CLAD) estimators in addition to more standard parametric estimators to assess the influence of shocks on remittance behaviour. In contrast to Heckman's two-step or the Tobit estimator, Powell's estimator is consistent in the presence of heteroscedasticity and is robust to violations of the normality assumption for the residuals. Regression results bring some support for the view that insurance is an important motivation for remittances. This welfare function should be taken into account by policy-makers in the design of migration policies.

Gubert F. (2001), Book Review : "Uganda's Recovery. The Role of Farms, Firms and Government." Ritva Reinikka and Paul Collier (eds), Journal of African Economies, 10, 4, p. 498–500

Ouvrages

Roubaud F., Gastineau B., Gubert F., Robilliard A-S. (2010), Madagascar face au défi des objectifs du millénaire pour le développement, IRD éd., Marseille, 335 p.

Chapitres d'ouvrage

Grimm M., Gubert F., Koriko O., Lay J., Nordman C. (2015), Does forced Solidarity Hamper Entrepreneurial Activity? Evidence from Seven West-African Countries, in Cling J-P., Lagrée S., Razafindrakoto M., Roubaud F. (eds), The informal economy in developing countries, Londres, Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, p. 197-210

Robilliard A-S., Gubert F., de Vreyer P. (2013), Les migrants de retour valorisent-ils leur capital ?, in Roubaud F., de Vreyer P. (dir.), Les marchés urbains du travail en Afrique subsaharienne, Marseille, IRD, p. 339-361

Roubaud F., Gubert F., de Vreyer P. (2013), Pourquoi migrent-ils ? Auto-sélection des migrants et rendements de l'éducation, in Roubaud F., de Vreyer P. (dir.), Les marchés urbains du travail en Afrique subsaharienne, Marseille, IRD, p. 313-337

Rakoto-Tiana N., Gubert F., de Vreyer P. (2013), Travail, scolarisation et activité domestique : quel arbitrage pour les enfants ?, in Roubaud F., de Vreyer P. (dir.), Les marchés urbains du travail en Afrique subsaharienne, Marseille, IRD, p. 363-386

Mesplé-Somps S., Gubert F., Chauvet L., Mesplé-Somps S. (2013), Transferts migratoires et démocratisation, in GONIN P., KOTLOK N., PÉROUSE DE MONTCLOS M-A. (dir.), La tragédie malienne, Paris, Vendémiaire, p. 227-241

Nordman C., Gubert F. (2011), Return Migration and Small Enterprise Development in the Maghreb, in Dilip R., Plaza S. (eds), Diaspora for Development in Africa, Washington, DC, ?World Bank, p. 103-126

Gubert F. (2011), Migrations, transferts et développement : le Mexique comme point de comparaison, in Mohsen-Finan K. (dir.), Le Maghreb dans les relations internationales, Paris, CNRS, p. 131-164

Andriananja H., Charmes J., Droy l., Froger G., Gubert F., Méral P., Ramiaramanana J., Razafindrakoto M., Robilliard A-S., Roubaud F. (2010), Histoire de la recherche en économie, in Feller C., Sandron F. (dir.), Parcours de recherche à Madagascar : l'IRD-Orstom et ses partenaires, Marseille?, IRD Editions, p. 139-167

Gubert F., Robilliard A-S. (2010), Croissance et pauvreté à Madagascar. Un aperçu de la dernière décennie (1997-2007), in Gastineau B., Gubert F., Robilliard A-S. (dir.), Madagascar face au défi des Objectifs du millénaire pour le développement, Marseille, ?IRD éd., p. 25-52

Senne J-N., Robilliard A-S., Gubert F. (2010), Impact des chocs économiques et démographiques sur la scolarisation en milieu rural, in Roubaud F., Robilliard A-S., Gubert F., Gastineau B. (dir.), Madagascar face au défi des Objectifs du millénaire pour le développement, Marseille, ?IRD éd., p. 157-185

Chauvet L., Gubert F., Mesplé-Somps S. (2010), Are Remittances More Effective Than Aid to Reduce Child Mortality? An Empirical Assessment Using Inter and Intra-Country Data, in Yifu Lin J. (eds), Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 2009, Global, p. 472

Gubert F. (2009), Enjeux individuels et collectifs de la migration : le point de vue des pays de départ, in Chemin A., Gélard J-P. (dir.), Migrants, craintes et espoirs, Rennes, Presses Universitaires de Rennes, p. 203-212

Roubaud F., Gubert F. (2006), Le financement de trés petites entreprises urbaines : études d'impact de microfinance à Antananarivo (Madagascar), in Mourji F., Decaluwé B., Plane P. (dir.), Le développement face à la pauvreté, Paris, Economica, p. 167-189

Gubert F. (2005), Migrant Remittances and their Impact on Development in the Home Economies: The Case of Africa,, Migration, Remittances and Development, Paris, OECD Publishing, p. 41–67

According to the latest figures from the United Nations,1 the number of migrants throughout the world has more than doubled since 1975. At the turn of this new century it is reported to stand at around 175 million persons (including refugees), or 2.9% of the global population. Still largely from Europe in the 1950s, migration flows have undergone radical change and are now predominantly from the developing world.

Communications

Gubert F., Mesplé-Somps S., Mercier M., Chauvet L. (2013), Migrants' Home Town Associations and Local Development in Mali, 12th journées Louis-André Gérard-Varet, Aix en Provence, FRANCE

This paper assesses the impact of migrants' Home Town Associations (HTAs) locatedin France on the provision of local public goods in Mali. To this end, we computed adataset on all the HTAs that have been created by Malian migrants in France since 1981and geo-localised their interventions on the Malian territory. Thanks to Malian census data, we also built a panel dataset informing the provision of a range of public goods in all the Malian localities over the 1976-2009 period. These two sources of data allow us to implement a double di erence strategy, and to compare localities with and without an HTA, before and after its creation. We not only assess whether "having an HTA"makes a di erence in terms of local development, but also whether the intensity of thetreatment as measured by the number of HTAs intervening in each locality or the numberof year under treatment leads to di erentiated impacts. We nd that Malian HTAs havesigni cantly contributed to improve the provision of water amenities (mainly fountains), health centers and electricity connection over the 1987-2009 period. The impact is found to be stronger when the focus is on the earlier period (before 1998).

Nordman C., Lay J., Koriko O., Gubert F., Grimm M. (2012), La solidarité forcée bride-t-elle l'activité des micro-entrepreneurs ? Une analyse à partir de données ouest-africaines, Le secteur et l'emploi informels. Mesure statistique, implications économiques et politiques publiques, Hanoï, Viêt Nam

Gubert F., Bruneau M., Hardy A., Ould Aoudia J. (2010), Impacts des migrations sur le développement et la pauvreté, Les journées de Tam ?ao, Hà Noi, Viêt Nam

Grimm M., Gubert F., Koriko O., Lay J., Nordman C. (2010), Does Forced Solidarity Hamper Entrepreneurial Activity? Evidence from seven West-African Countries, International Conference "The Informal Sector and Informal Employment: Statistical Measurement, Economic Implications and Public Policies", Hanoï, Viêt Nam

Gubert F., Mesplé-Somps S., Lessourd T. (2009), Do remittances affect poverty and inequality ? Evidence from Mali, Premier Colloque bi-annuel du GDRI DREEM : " Inégalités et développement dans les pays méditerranéens", Istanbul, TURKEY

Using a 2006 household survey in Mali, we compare current poverty rates and inequality levels with counterfactual ones in the absence of migration and remittances. With proper hypotheses on migrants and a selection model, we are able to impute a counterfactual income for households currently receiving remittances. We show that remittances reduce poverty rates by 5% to 11% and the Gini coefficient by about 5%. Households in the bottom quintiles are more dependent on remittances, which are less substitutable by additional workforce.

Chauvet L., Gubert F., Mesplé-Somps S. (2008), Are Remittances More Effective Than Aid To Improve Child Health? An Empirical Assessment using Inter and Intra-Country Data, Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, Cape Town, SOUTH AFRICA

The objective of the paper is to analyze the respective impact of aid and remittances onhuman development as measured by infant and child mortality rates and stunting incidence.Panel data on a sample of 98 developing countries, and cross-country quintile-level data on asample of 47 developing countries are alternatively used. In addition to assessing the extentto which health aid and remittances contribute to reduce child health disparities betweencountries, the paper addresses two other questions. What is the net effect of migration whenthe brain drain of health workers is accounted for? What is the effective impact of aid andremittances on intra-country child health disparities? Our results suggest that bothremittances and health aid significantly improve child health outcomes. The impact of healthaid is non-linear, though, suggesting that aid to the health sector is more effective in thepoorest countries. By contrast, medical brain drain, as measured by the expatriation rate ofphysicians, is found to have a harmful impact on health outcomes. The net impact ofmigration on human development is therefore mitigated. Medical brain drain is also found toreduce the effectiveness of health aid. Last, remittances seem to be much more effective in improving health outcomes for children belonging to the richest households, whereas neither pro-poor nor anti-poor effect is found for health aid.

Gubert F. (2000), Migration, Remittances and Moral Hazard. Evidence from the Kayes Area (Western Mali), 8th World Congress of the Econometric Society, Seattle, États-Unis

This article uses recent survey data from the Kayes area (Western Mali) to estimate the effect of migration and remittances on the technical efficiency of agricultural households. A theoretical model is developed, which shows that the more insurance is provided by the migrants, the less incentive their families have to work. A production function using panel data with household-specific fixed effects is estimated to test this hypothesis. The probability of being financially supported by migrants is found to significantly contribute to technical inefficiency. This result should help agricultural policy makers formulate more efficient development strategies in the area.

Documents de travail

De Vreyer P., Gubert F., Robilliard A. (2009), Return Migrants in Western Africa: Characteristics and Labour Market Performance, DIAL Document de travail, Paris, Université Paris-Dauphine, 35

Gubert F., Nordman C. (2006), Migration from MENA to OECD Countries: Trends, Determinants, and Prospects,, Washington DC, The World Bank, 90

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